MLB Around the Horn: July 28 DFS Plays with Pitcherlist

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Whether or not the Mets win the game, deGrom will pitch a gem.

Slate A (7:05 PM ET)

Must Play SP: Jacob deGrom, NYM ($24,800) @ PIT

The Rangers have the fourth worst K% in the majors, so I can see why Justin Verlander is an appealing play. deGrom, however, is the most consistent ace in baseball. The last time he didn’t throw a quality start: May 13th. With both the Rangers and the Pirates rolling on offense, I prefer the safer floor with deGrom. Patrick Corbin could also pull out the top pitching performance of the day facing the Padres, who have been bottom ten against LHP this season and have the second worst wRC+ this week.
Honorable Mention: Patrick Corbin ($20,300)

Value SP: Jake Odorizzi, MIN ($11,000) @ BOS

Heading into Boston for a start is usually enough to deter you from streaming or playing in DFS. There are exceptions though, and while most often that requires being an ace, Odorizzi is headed to Fenway at an opportune time. In his last five starts, Odorizzi has struck batters out at a more efficient rate than he had prior (10.87 K/9 compared to 9.04 K/9 in the starts prior), and his ERA is at 2.63 with a FIP of 2.91. Boston’s offense has been pretty middle of the pack this week, which is more drastic than it sounds when you consider they’re the #1 or #2 offense in baseball depending on what metric you prefer. If you want to save more money on the value SP, Lucas Giolito has been fine in his last five starts aside from the blowup against Cincinnati.
Honorable Mention: Lucas Giolito ($9,000)

IF: Nolan Arenado, COL ($10,400) vs. OAK (Brett Anderson)

Very few pairings in baseball can outdo Arenado and Coors Field. Arenado and left handed pitchers is one of those few.
Arenado at Coors: .362/.435/.686
Arenado against LHP: .413/.500/.857
Arenado at Coors against LHP: .468/.548/.984
The sample sizes decrease as you work down that list, but if those numbers tell you anything it’s that Arenado is a must play in all lineups today.
Honorable Mention: Manny Machado ($9,600)

OF: Christian Yelich, MIL ($10,200) @ SF (Johnny Cueto)

The positive regression xStats suggested Yelich was due for has arrived, as Yelich is one of two hitters with a wOBA over .700 since the All-Star break. In this time frame, Yelich has 18 hits; extra base hits account for 10 of those 18. Cueto has struggled since returning from the DL, and his fastball velocity has averaged under 90 mph two of those three games. With velocity that low, any mis-located pitch will get crushed, and Yelich is patient enough in the box to capitalize on those kind of mistakes.
Honorable Mention: Juan Soto ($8,900), Michael Conforto ($8,900)

Value Hitter: Jeff McNeil, NYM ($6,500) @ PIT (Trevor Williams)

McNeil was dominating both AA and AAA before the Mets called him up earlier this week. Most minor league analysts would tell you that at age 26, the level to which he was dominating isn’t worth getting excited about. Whether you believe that or not for the long run, McNeil has two hits and three walks in his first eleven plate appearances for the Mets, and I think he’ll produce if the Mets start him.
Honorable Mentions: Buster Posey ($6,700), Adrian Beltre ($5,900)

Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres (Tyson Ross)

While Colorado has the most appealing matchup, the prices are inflated to compensate for that, so it’s hard to get more than two in your lineup. The Angels have the fourth best wRC+ and are priced well, particularly Ian Kinsler, but the value you can get from Arizona is most appealing. Since the All-Star break Ketel Marte has a wOBA of .431, Steven Souza Jr. a wOBA of .418, and both are priced at less than $7,500.
Honorable Mention:  Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners

 

SLATE B (8:05 PM ET)

SP: Patrick Corbin, ARI ($20,300) @ SD

Despite having pitched at Atlanta and Colorado in two of his last five starts, Corbin has compiled a 2.76 ERA with 2.00/2.79 FIP/xFIP in the same time frame. The concerns about Corbin’s fastball velocity dip have still yet to completely manifest in a stretch of bad performances, so it seems like it doesn’t matter whether his fastball is 93 or 90. His secondaries are really strong, and against lefties the Padres are not.
Honorable Mention: Antonio Senzatela ($9,100)

IF: Nolan Arenado, COL ($10,400) vs. OAK (Brett Anderson)

Very few pairings in baseball can outdo Arenado and Coors Field. Arenado and left handed pitchers is one of those few.
Arenado at Coors: .362/.435/.686
Arenado against LHP: .413/.500/.857
Arenado at Coors against LHP: .468/.548/.984
The sample sizes decrease as you work down that list, but if those numbers tell you anything it’s that Arenado is a must play in all lineups today.
Honorable Mention: Ian Kinsler ($8,100)

OF: Christian Yelich, MIL ($10,200) @ SF (Johnny Cueto)

The positive regression xStats suggested Yelich was due for has arrived, as Yelich is one of two hitters with a wOBA over .700 since the All-Star break. In this time frame, Yelich has 18 hits; extra base hits account for 10 of those 18. Cueto has struggled since returning from the DL, and his fastball velocity has averaged under 90 mph two of those three games. With velocity that low, any mis-located pitch will get crushed, and Yelich is patient enough in the box to capitalize on those kind of mistakes.
Honorable Mentions: Mike Trout ($10,400), Wil Myers ($8,000)

Value Hitter: Buster Posey, SF ($6,700) vs. MIL (Jhoulys Chacin)

Posey has not played well since the All-Star break. It’s even less encouraging when you see his wOBA is at .242 in that span. However, Posey has only made soft contact on 8.7% of his batted balls and struck out in less than 14% of his plate appearances in that span, so his lack of production seems to be more bad luck than bad skill.
Honorable Mention: Steven Souza Jr. ($7,200)

Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres (Tyson Ross)

While Colorado has the most appealing matchup, the prices are inflated to compensate for that, so it’s hard to get more than two in your lineup. The Angels have the fourth best wRC+ and are priced well, particularly Ian Kinsler, but the value you can get from Arizona is most appealing. Since the All-Star break Ketel Marte has a wOBA of .431, Steven Souza Jr. a wOBA of .418, and both are priced at less than $7,500.
Honorable Mention:  Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners

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