MLB Punt Plays: July 5th

P: Shelby Miller ($12,800)- This is one of the ugliest pitching slates I can remember, with everyone and their mothers trying to find a way to jam in Justin Verlander. The way we can differentiate is at SP2, and that’s what has me looking at Shelby Miller. Most DFS players will see Miller and his 11.42 ERA and immediately shy away, but there is more to the story than that! Miller sports a 3.47 SIERA despite his bloated ERA, and has been pitching to a .444 BABIP which is due to regress. He has looked fine since returning from the DL, with good velocity, a 25.0% strikeout rate and was ramped up to almost 100 pitches in his last start. All this said, he has an elite matchup with the Padres who we repeatedly pick on with right-handed pitching. I really like this spot for Miller and the price/matchup are too good not to consider in all formats.

INF: Nick Ahmed ($6,500)- Nick Ahmed is typically a solid value play against a lefty, and that’s exactly where he finds himself tonight in a matchup with Eric Lauer. Ahmed typically moves up to second in the Diamondbacks order against southpaws, which obviously increases the value on his price. He has been no slouch at the plate this season either, posting a .241 ISO and a 45.1% hard hit rate against left-handed pitching. Lauer is allowing a .387 wOBA to righties in his first season in the big leagues, and I will be targeting Ahmed in all formats tonight.

OF: Ryan Rua ($5,900)- This is the definition of a pure punt play as Rua comes in priced under $6,000! Rua has been cracking the meat of the Rangers order recently against left-handed pitching and the Rangers draw a tasty matchup with Matt Boyd tonight. Rua surprisingly has hit very well this season sporting a huge .279 ISO and a .350 wOBA in limited at-bats against southpaws. If he is hitting fifth or sixth again tonight he is simply too cheap not to plug and play as a way to fit in Justin Verlander.

UTIL: Max Kepler ($6,700)- The Twins are in a prime spot tonight against Andrew Cashner, which has me targeting Mad Max as cheap exposure to one of the top offenses of the night. Kepler’s stats look a bit underwhelming against right-handed pitching this season, but my concerns are eased when seeing his .240 BABIP. He’s still hitting the ball hard, and in the air, so he seems due for some positive regression and I love attacking Cashner.

Ben Hossler; DFS Karma

Ben Hossler; DFS Karma

Ben can be found on FantasyDraft by his username “oatw” standing for “Ohio against the world”. He is a college student and the lead DFS analyst for dfskarma.com. He is a sports nerd who can often be found studying numbers late into the night. Mainly a cash game player, you can find him in the H2H lobby and in your 50/50s across the industry. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @BenHossler where he loves to talk sports, TV or music with his followers!

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