MLB Punt Plays: July 2nd

P: Luis Castillo ($11,300)- “Luis Castillo is not as good as he was last year” is something I have commonly heard this season. Well, in the words of one Aubrey Drake Graham…”Yeah, yeah we know.” That doesn’t change the fact that his SIERA sits at 4.12 compared to a 5.85 ERA. That doesn’t change the fact that his swinging strike percentage is 13.6% this season compared to 12.6% last season. And that certainly doesn’t change the fact that he’s facing the Chicago White Sox and their 25.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Am I implying that Luis Castillo is as good as he was last season? No, but I also don’t think he is as bad as he has been this season. He’s probably a mixture of the two, which gives us a pitcher with above-average strikeout ability against a team that strikes out at an above-average rate. I don’t think this is a secret at all today, and Castillo should be highly owned, but it is simply a mis-pricing and we should always take advantage of that in cash games.

INF: Daniel Descalso ($6,500)- I’m not sure everyone has become accustomed to targeting Carlos Martinez in DFS yet, but he just hasn’t been the same this season posting a 4.70 SIERA (4.73 xFIP). His numbers actually get even worse against left-handed batters, pitching to a 5.34 xFIP and a massive 16% walk rate…yikes! If Daniel Descalso cracks the Diamondbacks lineup tonight, he will become a great value play at his price and he has hit right-handed pitching pretty well in 2018. He owns a .356 wOBA this season with some surprising pop at a .220 ISO. His hard contact rate of 42.2% backs up his solid numbers and there is a chance he hits in the heart of the order should he start tonight.

OF: Lonnie Chisenhall ($6,900)- Big Lon typically sits against left-handed pitching in part due to Brandon Guyer, but he should start tonight with Jakob Junis toeing the rubber for the Royals. Junis is such an interesting pitcher to dissect, he allows a lot of hard contact (40.3%) and fly balls (43.8%) but his home park and stuff are good enough to survive when the BABIP gods look upon him. It’s going to be hot in KC today, so my faith in Junis is minimal against a high-contact Indians team, and Chisenhall hits better than most would think. This season, Chis owns a .368 wOBA against right-handed pitching and he has been locked in at the plate since returning from the disabled list. Over his last 14 days, Chisenhall’s hard hit rate sits a 48.3% coupled with 57.1% fly balls. If he’s in the lineup, he makes for a great value play and some cheap exposure to one of the top offenses of the night.

UTIL: C.J. Cron ($7,300)- Typically, I stick to sub-$7,000 plays for my batters but Cron is such a great play tonight I feel I need to include him. The Rays aren’t typically a team we like to roster in DFS, but they instantly become an attractive offense tonight against the corpse of Wei-Yin Chen. Chen has had a miserable time in 2018 as evidenced by his 5.20 SIERA and only a 16.1% strikeout rate. Cron has been money against right-handed pitching this season putting up a .352 wOBA, .218 ISO, 40.4% hard contact rate and 47.4% fly ball rate thus far. In addition to his ugly numbers, Chen allows 47% fly balls to right-handed batters so there is a good chance of Cron getting the ball up in the air in his at-bats against him.

Ben Hossler; DFS Karma

Ben Hossler; DFS Karma

Ben can be found on FantasyDraft by his username “oatw” standing for “Ohio against the world”. He is a college student and the lead DFS analyst for dfskarma.com. He is a sports nerd who can often be found studying numbers late into the night. Mainly a cash game player, you can find him in the H2H lobby and in your 50/50s across the industry. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @BenHossler where he loves to talk sports, TV or music with his followers!

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