Donut Shop – Breakout Batters for MLB DFS on FantasyDraft

MLB DFS on FantasyDraft

Hello! My name is Mitch but nobody really cares who I am. I go by DFSnDONUTS on Twitter and I really am not that exciting. However, I am very excited to deliver content for the FantasyDraft faithful. Researching and writing about Daily Fantasy Sports is an absolute passion of mine and I love to immerse myself in numbers. I am humbled to add FantasyDraft to my schedule as I absolutely love the current MLB DFS roster construction possibilities. The format is top notch and the flexibility in creating a lineup is absolutely freeing.

The modus operandi of this column is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a hitter is an ideal target to invest in. The hitters identified are on the verge of breaking out or are currently swinging the lumber like it’s a toothpick. Some of these hitters will be a forgone conclusion while others will take some courage to insert into your lineup. Many of the statistics and research are found using the Research Station.

Breakout Batters 

Matt Adams is on the verge of breaking out. This might be our last opportunity to grab some exposure to him at his depressed price point before it increases drastically in the near future.

Over the last six games, Adams has a 64% hard hit rate (a massive 25% increase over his season-long average), a 95 MPH exit velocity, and a 227 foot averaged batted ball distance. Adams has superb splits against right-handed pitchers (.385 wOBA and .301 ISO) and faces one today.

Opposing pitcher, Aaron Sanchez, has pretty even splits with a slight disadvantage against left-handed hitters. He throws his fastball 28.83% of the time and Adams has a .371 wOBA, .266 ISO and 39.52% hard hit rate against that pitch. Sanchez does have a superb fastball sinker which he throws 37.62% of the time (the highest frequency of all his pitches). Fortunately, Matt Adams is absolutely dominated the sinker his entire career and in 2018 his .444 wOBA, .324 ISO and 39.22% hard hit rate against that pitch showcase just that.

Adams likely won’t bat in the middle of the order with all of the left-handed smashers that now pile into the Nationals lineup, but he should be batting 6th or 7th and likely will have a few opportunities to drive in some runs or get a hold of a sinker and send it into the bleachers.

David Peralta has already broken out and really doesn’t need to be identified. That said, his ownership still continues to be in the under 10% virtually every single slate. I want to make sure my readers don’t fall asleep at the wheel with this freebie.

In the month of June, Peralta is 18-for-49 (.360 average) and has 3 doubles and 7 home runs in those 18 hits. He’s smashing the ball when he makes contact. His 64% hard hit rate over the last 12-games is a massive 27% increase over his season-long average.

Just to put the cherry on top he gets to face a Seth Lugo, a right-handed pitcher, which gives him a significant splits advantage for this matchup. Peralta has a massive .114 ISO differential and a .060 wOBA differential against right-handed pitchers.

The differential stat is the increase or decrease in wOBA and ISO splits versus opposing handedness of the pitcher. If that is semi-confusing, don’t sweat it, just know that it means he’s in another great spot on Friday.

Brandon Nimmo has slowed down enough over the past seven games to the point where he isn’t a plug and play anymore. This is a great reason to go back to the well as Nimmo is actually still crushing the ball and has a nice splits advantage today.

Over the last seven games, while not as dominant as his phenomenal two weeks prior, Nimmo has a hit in all but one game – including a double, a triple, and two home runs. He has produced a 48% hard hit rate and a 248 foot average batted ball distance, including a 40% fly ball rate (underrated stat).

The Mets are in a nice hitters park on Friday as they are in Arizona to face right-handed pitcher, Zach Godley, who has struggled with control as of late (16 walks in his past 24.1 innings pitched). His .413 wOBA and .267 ISO against right-handed pitchers and spot in the batting order (3rd) make him the ideal target to start a Mets stack with (or even a game stack with Jake Lamb, David Peralta, and Paul Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks).

Shin-Soo Choo is 19-for-43 with four doubles and three home runs in the month of June. As solid as his month of May was his month of June dwarfs those numbers in comparison. He seems to only be getting hotter as the weather warms in Texas.

Luckily for Choo, the Rangers host the visiting Colorado Rockies and right-handed pitcher, Chad Bettis on Friday night. The weather is supposed to be in the mid-90’s again and the Rangers currently have a 5.4 implied run total. As a lead-off hitter, this means Choo should have ample opportunity for success if the offense delivers.

Choo owns the splits advantage and carries a .351 wOBA and .195 ISO against right-handed pitchers into this matchup. He also has a super advanced stats line which only strengthens my position on Choo. Over the last 15-days, Choo has a 51% hard hit rate, 48% fly ball rate, 252 foot average batted ball distance and a mammoth 96 MPH exit velocity on all batted ball events. Every single one of those stats is an increase on his season-long average.

Wrap It Up, Dude!

I thoroughly enjoyed publishing this first article for FantasyDraft. If you enjoyed my delivery of information you have no idea the amount of analysis we release to our members. We currently have 3-5 articles each for both the early and main slates and a daily main slate podcast, in addition to the Research Station (analytics spread sheets with all relevant statistics needed), cheat sheets with Vegas props and odds, and lastly the cherry on top – our Domination Station (optimizer that greatly contributes to the massive amount of 6-digit wins our members have over the last calendar year). Please sign up HERE using promo DONUTS for 10% off!

I am incredibly humbled for this opportunity and would love to interact with readers about anything DFS related! You can find me on Twitter where I will frequently post my other published works from www.numberFire.com and www.dfsarmy.com.

Fortune favors the bold. Go make your own luck!
Donuts

Mitchell Carl, Donuts via DFS Army

Mitchell Carl, Donuts via DFS Army

I have always had a passion for numbers for as long as I can remember. As nerdy as it may sound, statistics and trends are where I feel most comfortable. When I came across Daily Fantasy Sports it was love at first sight. I have been blessed to have a few avenues to research and write about DFS via www.numberFire.com and www.DFSArmy.com. I am humbled to have the opportunity to deliver content for FantasyDraft and hopefully provide people an opportunity to not only succeed, but to flourish. You can find Mitch on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where magical things happen.

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