Donut Shop – Breakout Batters for MLB DFS on FantasyDraft

MLB DFS on FantasyDraft

Hello! My name is Mitch but nobody really cares who I am. I go by DFSnDONUTS on Twitter and I really am not that exciting. However, I am very excited to deliver content for the FantasyDraft faithful. Researching and writing about Daily Fantasy Sports is an absolute passion of mine and I love to immerse myself in numbers. I am humbled to add FantasyDraft to my schedule as I absolutely love the current MLB DFS roster construction possibilities. The format is top notch and the flexibility in creating a lineup is absolutely freeing.

The modus operandi of this column is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a hitter is an ideal target to invest in. The hitters identified are on the verge of breaking out or are currently swinging the lumber like it’s a toothpick. Some of these hitters will be a forgone conclusion while others will take some courage to insert into your lineup. Many of the statistics and research are found using the Research Station.

Breakout Batters 

Matt Olson isn’t exactly a hidden gem anymore. He’s been on the hearts and in the mind’s of DFS players across the industry over the last couple weeks. Why is he showing up on a list identifying hitters that are on the verge of breaking out or in the midst of taking it to the next level?

At just $8,400 on FantasyDraft, Olson still has a massive scoring ceiling and wiggle room to not only hit value but to absolutely smash it. His advanced stats are mind numbing and his matchup is a winnable one.

Over his last 14-games, Olson has a 71% hard hit rate, a 43% fly ball rate, and an astronomical exit velocity of 100 MPH on all batted ball events. To top it off, he has the fifth highest notable ISO split (.353) to go along with a superb .406 wOBA split.

Vegas has opened the Athletics line with a 4.1 implied run total. A lower Vegas total can sometimes lead to a lower ownership due to the perceived lack of success projected by Vegas. This is the exact type of spot that I like to pounce and grab a mid-tier hitter with elite upside.

Alex Avila is not having the type of season with the Arizona Diamondbacks that many thought he could be having. His overall numbers have been poor and he’s struggling to make contact with the ball. That being said, over his last couple weeks he is showing some pop and finds himself in a showdown with opposing right-handed pitcher, German Marquez.

Avila is priced at just $5,700 on FantasyDraft and certainly will be extremely low-owned. Now we will have to make sure that he is in the starting lineup as he is a rotational catcher at this point in the season. However, if he is starting I am going to be locking him into one of the IF or UTIL spots on my roster.

Over t he last two weeks, Avila has an 83% hard hit rate with a 97 MPH exit velocity and a 245 foot average batted ball distance. He also has a ridiculous strikeout rate and should only be used in large field GPPs due to his insane volatility. This is the exact type of play that people shake their heads at when they see someone in first place with a guy like Alex Avila, wondering “what in the world drove him to use this guy?”.

Scott Schebler is starting to hit the ball with serious power over the last 13-games. He has a 47% hard hit rate, 94 MPH exit velocity, and a 232 foot average batted ball distance over that time frame. Over his current seven game hitting streak, Scott is 14-for-28 and his matchup with a pitcher that has been giving up some extremely hard hit balls over the last couple starts means Schebler could not only stay hot but go deep in this game.

Over his last two starts, Luke Weaver has allowed opposing batters to hit for a 57% hard hit rate, 39% fly ball rate, 100 MPH average exit velocity, and a 240 foot average batted ball distance. The Cincinnati Reds have a 4.5 run implied total and could be a really nice stack in general using the highly flexible roster format that FantasyDraft offers. Just make sure that Schebler ends up in the lineup prior to submission.

Jason Kipnis is waking up as of late and has gone 15-for-48 over his last 12-games. He’s smacked two home runs and three doubles over those 15 hits and has a nice matchup against a pitcher who has struggled against left-handed hitters in 2018.

Michael Fulmer has allowed a .335 wOBA, .229 ISO and 34.0% hard hit rate to opposing left-handed hitters. His pitching profile puts him at risk in this one on one showdown with Jason Kipnis as well.

In 2018, Kipnis has smoked opposing fastball’s to the tune of a .220 ISO, .390 CXwOBA, and a 35.88% hard hit rate. Fulmer is throwing that pitch 22.5% of the time this season. Fulmer’s favorite pitch is the fastball sinker, which he is throwing 35.67% of the time. Kipnis has a ridiculous .471 CXwOBA and .198 ISO with a 38.03% hard hit rate against that pitch in 2018. Yikes!

Kipnis is a guy I plan on using no matter where he is in the order and his price is not indicative of his current production and form that he’s in. At just $6,900 he’s quite the bargain and is on the brink of detonating on opposing pitchers.

Wrap It Up, Dude!

I thoroughly enjoyed publishing this first article for FantasyDraft. If you enjoyed my delivery of information you have no idea the amount of analysis we release to our members. We currently have 3-5 articles each for both the early and main slates and a daily main slate podcast, in addition to the Research Station (analytics spread sheets with all relevant statistics needed), cheat cheets with Vegas props and odds, and lastly the cherry on top – our Domination Station (optimizer that greatly contributes to the massive amount of 6-digit wins our members have over the last calendar year). Please sign up HERE using promo DONUTS for 10% off!

I am incredibly humbled for this opportunity and would love to interact with readers about anything DFS related! You can find me on Twitter where I will frequently post my other published works from www.numberFire.com and www.dfsarmy.com.

Fortune favors the bold. Go make your own luck!
Donuts

Mitchell Carl, Donuts via DFS Army

Mitchell Carl, Donuts via DFS Army

I have always had a passion for numbers for as long as I can remember. As nerdy as it may sound, statistics and trends are where I feel most comfortable. When I came across Daily Fantasy Sports it was love at first sight. I have been blessed to have a few avenues to research and write about DFS via www.numberFire.com and www.DFSArmy.com. I am humbled to have the opportunity to deliver content for FantasyDraft and hopefully provide people an opportunity to not only succeed, but to flourish. You can find Mitch on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where magical things happen.

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