MLB Tournament Thoughts with ShipMyMoney

Tonight on FantasyDraft, we have a $8,000 Home Run with a manageable $25 entry fee and a 11 entry limit so we will not see the field overrun by anyone one player with a big bankroll. There are 15 games on the slate, so here are some of the players I am considering for my tournament lineups.

Starting Pitchers

Nick Pivetta, Philadelphia Phillies, $19,300

Pivetta is priced up tonight on FantasyDraft in a friendly matchup against the San Francisco Giants in AT&T Park. There are several aces available on this slate, which should keep attention away from Pivetta, but he has been an ace in his own right this season. He has the third highest strikeout percentage on this slate at 28.8 percent and he has been dominant against right-handed hitters, striking out 33.3 percent while allowing just a .249 wOBA. Most of the dangerous hitters in the San Francisco lineup are right-handed and the Giants have the third highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season.

Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates, $13,900

There is a risk in rostering Taillon tonight as he faces a Cardinals team that has plenty of power in a road game that will feature weather in the low 90s. Taillon’s price tag allows for plenty of upside, however, when we factor in that almost all of the Cardinals’ power comes from the right side of the plate. Taillon has struck out 27.2 percent of right-handed hitters this season while holding them to a .242 wOBA with just 25.0 percent hard contact, 22.7 percent soft contact and a 51.1 percent groundball percentage. Taillon also featured a slider 35 percent of the time in his last start, which is a new pitch for him and should make him even more lethal against righties. He is a great way to fit expensive bats into your tournament lineups.

Infield

Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks, $8,500

Goldschmidt has struggled to start the season, especially with strikeouts. Tonight, he will face young right-hander Elieser Hernandez. Hernandez has decent stuff but is very inexperienced and his change-up grades out as his best pitch.
Right-handed change-ups are not as effective to right-handed hitters as left-handed hitters, and we have seen righties do most of the damage against Hernandez so far to the tune of a .391 xwOBA and .204 xISO. Hernandez has struck out just 11.1 percent of right-handed hitters so far while allowing 41.7 percent hard contact and inducing just 8.3 percent soft contact. Goldschmidt should be able to make contact against him and this is a good “get right” spot for Goldy.

Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox, $8,200

Abreu is very likely to go overlooked as the White Sox are unlikely to be a popular stack tonight. Chase Anderson has struggled with right-handed power for most of his career and this season has been no different as he hasd allowed a .367 xwOBA and .253 xISO to righties. Abreu hits right-handed pitching very well, with a .421 xwOBA and .291 xISO against righties this season and a .361 wOBA and .239 ISO against them last season.

Outfield

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees, $10,700

Judge is expensive, but he has an excellent matchup against Andrew Cashner. Cashner throws his two-seam fastball nearly 50 percent of the time to right-handed hitters (46.4 percent to be exact). The pitch has not been particularly effective, as Cashner has allowed a .216 ISO (.300 xISO) and .410 wOBA (.499xwOBA) with just a 2.0 percent swinging strike percentage to righties.
Not only has Judge destroyed right-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .444 xwOBA and .337 xISO, but he has obliterated two-seam fastballs over the last two seasons. Last year, in 64 at-bats ending on a two-seam fastball, Judge had a .488 xwOBA and .445 xISO. So far this season, in 28 at-bats ending on a two-seam fastball, he has a .490 xwOBA and .490 xISO. Cashner’s primary secondary pitch to righties is a slider that he throws 22.7 percent of the time. Judge has posted a .392 xwOBA and .226 xISO against right-handed sliders this season just for good measure.

Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics, $8,900

Khris Davis is back in the lineup for the Athletics and he gets a prime matchup against home run prone right-hander Ian Kennedy. Everyone looks to Davis against left-handed pitching, but he has just as much power against righties. Davis has a .444 xwOBA and .396 xISO against righties this season after posting a .369 wOBA and .293 ISO against righties in 444 at-bats last season. Kennedy has allowed a .214 actual ISO and .259 xISO to right-handed hitters so far this season, and his surprising groundball tendencies that we saw early in the season have disappeared over his last few starts.

Best of luck in taking second place tonight! ~ ShipMyMoney

Adam Scherer

Adam Scherer

Adam Scherer (aka ShipMyMoney) has been playing full time DFS for the last two years since taking a “sabbatical” from law school. He specializes in MLB and NBA and has a couple live finals appearance under his belt along with a couple high five figure victories in tournaments. Adam likes to dig into the analytics as well as use the “eye test” particularly for his pitcher analysis and understanding NBA game flow and coaching strategies. You can find his work on FanVice.com for both articles as well as the Deeper Dive live video show airing regularly at 5pm ET or on Twitter @ShipMyMoneyDFS

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