MLB Punt Plays: May 31st

P: Jose Quintana ($14,600)- Jose Quintana is the most attractive cheaper arm to me today in a borderline elite matchup with the New York Mets. Quintana has had an up-and-down season, but his strikeout rate is up 3% to 24% for the last 30 days and he has thrown much better on the road this season, and he’s on the road tonight! The Mets have been egregious against southpaws this season ranking dead-last in the league in wRC+ against left-handed pitching (70) and and 2nd overall in strikeouts at 27%. Q has the perfect recipe for a rebound game and I’m all in on taking the risk.

INF: Justin Bour ($6,900)- Justin Bour has been under-priced for what feels like the whole season, and I’m willing to bank on his upside tonight against Jordan Lyles. Lyles has pitched well for the Padres so far this season, but he is allowing 51% fly balls to left-handed batters and that could be a problem against someone with the power of Bour. Bour owns a .284 ISO against righties this season and he has bumped his hard contact up to 47% over the last 14 days.

OF: Guillermo Heredia ($5,700)- Guillermo Heredia has been elevated to the top of the Mariners order against left-handed pitching numerous times this season, including last night, and they draw another lefty tonight in Mike Minor. Minor has been pretty average thus far this season, but the batted ball data is somewhat scary including a 45% fly ball rate and 40% hard contact to right-handed batters. Heredia owns a 48% fly ball rate against southpaws so he should be able to get the ball up in the air against Minor, if he is back hitting 2nd he becomes a much more attractive play.

UTIL: Jace Peterson ($4,500)- This play is 100% not about Peterson’s skills, it’s about his price and his matchup with Sonny Gray. I don’t think Peterson is very good, but he has routinely found his way to the top of the Orioles order against righties this season and I am definitely interested against Gray. Gray has been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB this season when factoring in what he is supposed to be, he owns a 4.93 SIERA and 19% strikeout rate through ten starts with 12% walks! His walk rate balloons even further to 14% against left-handed batters and the Orioles implied team total has already risen 0.4 runs today. If he is at the top of the order he is firmly in play despite his limited upside.

Ben Hossler; DFS Karma

Ben Hossler; DFS Karma

Ben can be found on FantasyDraft by his username “oatw” standing for “Ohio against the world”. He is a college student and the lead DFS analyst for dfskarma.com. He is a sports nerd who can often be found studying numbers late into the night. Mainly a cash game player, you can find him in the H2H lobby and in your 50/50s across the industry. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @BenHossler where he loves to talk sports, TV or music with his followers!

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