MLB Punt Plays: May 14th

 

 

P: Andrew Heaney- On a shorter 8 game slate, there’s not a ton to like at the cheaper level of pitching but I do think there is upside in Andrew Heaney’s price…despite the tough matchup with the Houston Astros. To start, Heaney has pitched extremely better than his near 5.00 ERA tells us, he owns a 3.63 SIERA and a 26% strikeout rate. He is definitely due for positive regression, unfortunately I don’t know if it will come tonight against a righty-heavy Astros team. If he gets hit around tonight, that means that his price will drop even further for a better matchup in his next start, but there are few options tonight at his price point with strikeout upside. His second most used pitch is his slider, which some of the Astros best hitters struggle against and there is movement towards him in Vegas…so there is a reason to believe tonight. He makes for a very interesting SP2 tonight and I like him in tournaments.

 

INF: Yonder Alonso ($6,600)- I was all over Yonder Alonso last Friday night and he delivered with a home run, so naturally I’m going back to the well tonight against Mike Fiers. Fiers has allowed 1.95 HR/9 this season which is the highest of any pitcher on the slate, allowing homers has been his problem for the last few season so obviously we want to target power hitters against him. Alonso has been in a pretty big slump over the last few weeks, but he has still been making solid contact and people won’t want to play him given his bleak game-log. Despite the slump, he still owns a .231 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and he’s too cheap for the upside he provides.

 

OF: Domingo Santana ($6,600)- This is a bit of an off the radar play, as Santana hasn’t lived up to the numbers he put up last season quite yet and he has a presumed tough matchup with Patrick Corbin. I believe these two players are moving in opposite directions however, and that’s beneficial to Santana. Santana might be struggling at the plate, but over the last 14 days he owns a huge 55% hard contact rate which gives me confidence that he will break out offensively soon. He also mashed left-handed pitching last season (.377 wOBA, .218 ISO) so I just don’t think he will continue to be lost at the plate like he has been. Corbin was on fire to start the season, but he has since regressed and has seen a pretty big drop in velocity in recent starts down to 89-90. I’m not sure if he can continue to be so dominant with that drop in velo, seeing as his hard contact allowed sits at 50% over his last 11 innings pitched.

 

UTIL: Brandon Belt ($7,200)- Belt is $200 above my typical cap for batters, but he is such a good play tonight at that price I don’t see a way I can’t write him up. Belt has hit the ball extremely well in 2018, he owns a 50% fly ball rate and 44% hard contact thus far. Sal Romano owns the highest SIERA on the slate (5.17) along with the lowest strikeout rate at 14.4%…hardly someone we wan’t to avoid. Belt’s ISO sits at .287 against righties this season and much like Alonso, he’s just too cheap for the upside he provides.

Ben Hossler; DFS Karma

Ben Hossler; DFS Karma

Ben can be found on FantasyDraft by his username “oatw” standing for “Ohio against the world”. He is a college student and the lead DFS analyst for dfskarma.com. He is a sports nerd who can often be found studying numbers late into the night. Mainly a cash game player, you can find him in the H2H lobby and in your 50/50s across the industry. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @BenHossler where he loves to talk sports, TV or music with his followers!

You may also like...

Leave a Reply