NBA Starting Five with MAS47

Welcome to the newest addition to FantasyDraft, “MAS47’s Starting Five.” In this article I will be breaking down five things that you need to know about each slate. These topics will range from, but are not limited to, narratives, chalk locks, fades, amazing matchups, terrible defenses, targetable games and much more. As you all know, every slate is a blank canvas and it will be my job to paint an appropriate picture.

The KAT is out of the bag. 

Karl-Anthony Towns comes into tonight’s slate in the best spot, in the best matchup, with the highest projected total, and in a pace up game. There is literally nothing about Towns that indicates he’s going to struggle tonight. The historical data backs up this research as well.  In the last six matchups with the Clippers big man DeAndre Jordan, he’s exceeded value in four of the six games scoring no less than 47 fantasy points in any of those four games. The matchup couldn’t be much better, as the Clippers as a team rank sixth worst in the NBA against opposing Centers. The pace of the game is projected to be the fastest on the six-game slate and the total is considerably higher than any other as well (227). Obviously, Jimmy Butler is still sidelined and over the last two weeks, it’s been “KAT” that’s shown us the highest ceiling in his absence. Tonight, I would assume, will be no different. On FantasyDraft his $17,800 price tag is considerably cheaper than what he’s priced at on DraftKings ($9,500 x2 = $19,000) making him that much more playable in all formats. I don’t see how you fade this guy and would recommend you start your roster construction with Karl-Anthony Towns tonight.

The Texas Two-Step. 

Listen, I know neither of these games/teams I’m about to talk about are playing at home in Texas, but these are two guys that I have a ton of interest in. Let’s start with the Dallas Mavericks’ Harrison Barnes. Without Dennis Smith Jr. on the court this Season, Barnes averages a 29% usage rate, the highest on the team. Tonight he draws a dream matchup facing off against New Orleans in a pace up game. They have been the third worst team in the NBA since the All-Star Break at guarding opposing Small Forwards. 2+2=4 the last time I checked and I want to attack Harrison Barnes at a very affordable $11,300 price tag on FantasyDraft specifically. Next, let’s head to my Houston Rockets where I think a lot of the industry is going to make a mistake tonight. Damian Lillard should not be in you cash game lineups tonight as he’s going to be matched up directly with the sixth best on-ball defender in the NBA in Chris Paul. You know who should be on your RotoRadar though? CP3. Chris Paul has dominated “Dame Dolla” throughout his entire career and since this is a must-win game for both teams as they’re battling for playoff positioning, the stakes will be at an all-time high. In the last ten games these two have faced off Lillard has hit or exceeded value twice, while Chris Paul has hit or exceeded value in eight of the ten games. Paul is currently my favorite player to target from this game as a whole and if you want to stack it, look no further than number three on the Rockets roster.

He’s too cheap. 

I mentioned in the previous bullet point, the reasons I love Barnes tonight. The same reasons apply to Yogi Ferrell. Most people will look at his salary ($10,700) and immediately be turned off of him. I think that makes me like him more because I still think he’s too cheap given the matchup, the ceiling, the guaranteed minutes and the role he should possess tonight. Rajon Rondo is not a good defender, there’s no secret there. I think the majority of the scoring for Dallas tonight will come from the Point Guard and Small Forward positions. We already know that Barea will “try” to play tonight, but if for whatever reason Carlisle decides to rest him (no reason to play the savvy vet), Yogi becomes an under-owned play with perhaps the highest points per dollar upside on the slate. Even if he plays his normal 18-22 minutes (Barea), I would still expect Ferrell to hit value and provide a safe floor for all cash game rosters.

Don’t fade this guy, anywhere. 

The Pelicans have been playing really good basketball of late. Anthony Davis has been playing amazingly of late. The Dallas Mavericks can’t rebound the ball (second worst rebounding differential in the NBA). Davis has scored under 50 fantasy points one time in his last eight games against the Mavericks. I mentioned two Mavericks that I like a lot tonight. Why not correlate with is, in my opinion, the best play on the entire slate in a crush spot. We all know, Anthony Davis is his own worst enemy. He can roll an ankle and go down with an in-game injury at any moment. If he plays his full allotment of minutes tonight, he’s the guy you want as your “pay up” option in all formats. I’d be shocked if “The Brow” didn’t have a ceiling game tonight against a team that comes in ranked near the bottom of the NBA in all statistical categories that will benefit AD. Lock n’ load.

Double Trouble. 

Both starting Power Forwards have already been ruled out tonight in the Atlanta/Utah game. Jonas Jerebko will be starting for the injury Favors and it’ll most likely be Tyler Cavanaugh starting for the injured John Collins. So who benefits here? For me, I don’t want to touch Jerebko with a ten-foot pole typically because he’s a terrible points-per-minute player. Tonight is no different. It’ll be Jae Crowder that sees the biggest uptick in both minutes and usage. Don’t get caught game-log watching here though. Crowder only scored 4 FantasyDraft points the last time Favors didn’t suit up. I’m chalking this up as an anomaly and hopefully, the industry is scared away by that information. At $9,000 on FantasyDraft, he’s honestly one of the better value plays on the slate. On the other side, Cavanaugh has shown us glimpses of upside. In a starting role, at only $6,000, you shouldn’t overlook this spot. Also of note, the Hawks no longer have Ersan Ilyasova in their rotation which makes for one less forward that the rookie will be sharing time and usage with. Both Crowder and Cavanaugh are great pay-down options that can and should provide you with a safe floor and relatively high ceilings.

Sean Pfeiffer

Sean Pfeiffer

Sean Pfeiffer is the CEO and Founder of RotoRadar. He is a full-time daily fantasy sports Pro Analyst for RotoRadar that specializes in NBA and MLB. He took the leap of faith to pursue daily fantasy sports and RotoRadar full-time in August of 2015 and has never looked back. Previously he worked for ABC, FOX and ESPN as an anchor, on-air personality and producer. Pfeiffer assembled some of the largest names in the DFS industry in all sports providing insight daily on www.RotoRadar.net. He has had numerous top 1% finishes over the last three NBA Seasons himself. In the 2015/16 NBA Season he had 19 top 1% finishes, in the 2016/17 NBA Season he had 23 top 1% finishes, and in the 2017/18 NBA Season he had 11 top 1% finishes (In progress). Every day Sean spends anywhere between 10 to 12 hours of research into the lineups that he plays and provides for his members. There's not many people who can say they watch every second of every game every night, but that's exactly what Sean and his wife Jenna do. If there's any edge to be found, Sean is going to find it. Don't miss a chance to invest in one of the best full-time DFS Pros in the industry. Personal Information: He welcomed the light of his life into his family on March 15, 2017 as his wife Jenna gave birth to his first-born daughter, Kiara Morgan. Sean is from Houston, Texas and currently resides in Colorado Springs. Follow him on Twitter @RotoRadarCEO.

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