NBA Thoughts with ShipMyMoney

Tonight on FantasyDraft, we have an $8,750 Pick and Roll with a reasonable $25 entry fee and a 12-entry limit, so we will not see the field splashed by anyone one player with a big bankroll.  There are 10 games on the slate, so here are some of the players I am eyeing for my tournament lineups.

Guard

Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns, $15,700

Booker is playing huge minutes for the Suns and his usage rate has been as high as ever, even after the addition of Elfrid Payton.  Oklahoma City ranks 17th in defensive rating and 11th in pace over the last month and the absence of Andre Roberson will hurt their efforts to stop Booker.  Booker has averaged 38.2 minutes per game (never less than 36 minutes) and a 34.8 percent usage rate (never less than 30.4 percent) over his last five games.  His price tag is way too cheap for the upside that he offers in the game with the third-highest total on the board.

Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz, $13,600

Mitchell’s production has been all over the place lately, but his minutes and role in the offense have not wavered.  He has played at least 36 minutes in seven straight games and has an average usage rate of 32.6 percent over that span (never less than 29.4 percent).  Tonight, he will face the Timberwolves on the second half of a back-to-back.  Going into last night’s game, Minnesota’s starters had a 107.9 defensive rating with Jimmy Butler on the floor compared to 119.9 without him.

Andrew Wiggins was used as the one-on-one defender in ISO situations against Damian Lillard last night.  This all bodes very well for Mitchell.  It is also worth remembering that Quin Snyder has a history of keeping his starters on the floor in the fourth quarter at home regardless of the scoreboard, so Mitchell’s floor is even higher.

Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks, $17,700

Giannis is probable for tonight’s game against the Pacers and his price tag here on Fantasy Draft is a bit low (by at least $3,000).  Antetokounmpo was dealing with an eye injury after being poked, so there is no reason to think that his playing time will be limited at all in this game.  After a stretch of slow play, Indiana is back in the top 10 in pace over the last month.  There is nothing but upside for Giannis at this price point.

Blake Griffin, Detroit Pistons, $14,200

Griffin’s value has taken a hit alongside Andre Drummond, as his usage and rebounding have both suffered compared to his numbers with the Clippers.  In 273 minutes alongside Drummond, Griffin has a 26.4 usage percentage and 10.9 rebounding percentage.  With the Clippers, Griffin had a 30 percent usage percentage and 12.8 rebounding percentage.  His price tag has plummeted as a result, however.

A key to having success in tournaments is putting yourself in positions where the players that you roster have much more upside than risk- even if they have not recently shown that upside.  That is the case for Griffin tonight in an excellent matchup against the Magic.  Although Griffin has not had a ceiling game in a while, the potential for it is still there and he will most likely have a couple of them before the season ends.

The price tag makes it relatively unlikely that he hurts us and there is much more potential reward than risk.  Do not focus on the results over the last four games too much, 30 to 32 minutes of a player with a 26 percent usage rate, 27 percent assist percentage and 11 percent rebounding percentage is extremely valuable at Griffin’s new price point.

Center

Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons, $17,500

Drummond, like Blake Griffin, is in a nice matchup against the Magic.  Orlando has allowed the second most offensive rebounds per game this season and Drummond leads the entire NBA in put-back attempts per game.  He trails only Steven Adams amongst starting centers in offensive rebound percentage and he is tied with Adams in offensive rebounds per game.  Drummond’s assist numbers have dropped since Griffin joined the team, but he still offers a ton of upside by way of points and rebounds in this matchup.

Dwight Howard, Charlotte Hornets, $13,400

Howard has a tough matchup against Joel Embiid and the 76ers, but the Sixers are on a back-to-back so the matchup may be a little easier (if Embiid sits it is a lot easier).  Howard offers enormous upside at this price, especially if Cody Zeller is out and Howard is asked to play a few more minutes.  Howard’s minutes recently look really bad, but they are not as unstable as they appear.

The Hornets have been involved in a game decided by more than 10 points in 8 of their last 11 games.  In the three games that were decided by less than 10 points, Howard played 32, 39 (overtime) and 37 minutes.  Howard is extremely productive on a per-minute basis and his price tag has fallen as a result of circumstances that have nothing to do with Howard or his performance.  It is the time to jump on Howard every slate regardless of matchup because there is too much excess value to ignore.

Adam Scherer

Adam Scherer

Adam Scherer (aka ShipMyMoney) has been playing full time DFS for the last two years since taking a “sabbatical” from law school. He specializes in MLB and NBA and has a couple live finals appearance under his belt along with a couple high five figure victories in tournaments. Adam likes to dig into the analytics as well as use the “eye test” particularly for his pitcher analysis and understanding NBA game flow and coaching strategies. You can find his work on FanVice.com for both articles as well as the Deeper Dive live video show airing regularly at 5pm ET or on Twitter @ShipMyMoneyDFS

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