PGA First Look: WGC Mexico with FireDFS

Welcome to our First look at this week’s PGA Tour event on FantasyDraft.  A quick trip to Mexico this week for the WGC Mexico Championship.  After breaking up with Doral a year ago we head back to Mexico for Year 2.  This was an interesting tournament last year as we didn’t have a lot of information to go off of.  Flyovers made the course look very tight and we thought you were 100% going to need to be in the fairway.  Players ended up having the ability to fly a lot of the tree trouble and when all else failed just look for a sprinkler for free relief.

Course Information:

Course: Club de Golf Chapultepec

Yardage/Par: Par 71, 7,330 Yards
Scoring Expectation: Medium. DJ shipped at -14 last year, but the scoring dropped off quickly – T20 was -5. NO CUT!!!
Greens: Poa Annua
Weather: Mid 60s.  Light Wind. Looks perfect!

We’ve released the FireCharts series to the public!  I will reference them throughout the player write-ups below.  For a quick guide to what they’re all about, check out this post.  As promised last week we’ve added to the suite.  FireStats now included!

Last Week’s Cash Lineup:

Disaster!  Managed 2 guys in the Top 5 and still couldn’t manage a cash with a whopping 4 guys not playing the weekend!  Good timing for a no cut event.  Conditions were incredibly hard and we saw high-level golfer after high-level golfer get chewed up and spit out to non-participation on the weekend.  Rickie, CH3, red hot Hadley, and Knox were among the many to get beat up by PGA National.  Having previously shot WELL over 100 in my first try at the course (don’t worry, I’ve gotten better) it was actually enjoyable to watch the course beat these guys.  Wasn’t great on the bankroll, but we’re moving on.

This week’s picks!

Golfers to Consider:

Jon Rahm ($17,200)

This was a tough call as these are the best golfers in the world.  But ultimately it came down to the fact that we get 4 rounds of Jon Rahm to unleash his birdie making capabilities on the field.  We’ve taken a new approach to looking at birdie makers compared to the field in our charts series to level the playing field event to event. And what we see is no matter the event, Jon Rahm outpaces the field in scoring.  He’s a little more affordable than DJ, so I’m going with him.

Tony Finau ($14,800)

We’re going to keep going with scoring here as our theme in the no-cut event so we’re going to jump on a guy that gives himself a ton of chances at scoring. I’m going to show the same chart for Finau as Rahm, just to highlight how solid of a scorer he is.  Not quite as consistent as Rahm, with his confidence interval landing at about +0.4 to +1.0 standard deviations above field average, but very solid for $14,800 in a no-cut event.


Gary Woodland ($14,200)

I was curious to compare Finau to Woodland over a long enough stretch of golf to get a good view so I pulled their last 14 events each.  What I was surprised to find is how close they have been with Woodland narrowly outpacing Finau in SG Total and right in line with his scoring.  The good news is we don’t have to play one or the other – put them together in a lineup and grab 2 solid scorers for 4 guaranteed rounds (pending any stomach bugs – looking at you Stenson).

Pat Perez ($13,600)

Greens equal birdie opportunities and Pat Perez hits some greens.  He gets there by hitting a lot more fairways than his fellow competitors. The elevation should give him a chance to be closer to the green than we might otherwise assume with Perez so we’ll get him firing at pins for 4 straight days from the short grass.  There is a solid chance at a low round or two with that combo from Perez.

Good luck and head on over to and create a FREE ACCOUNT for access to a full range of content as the week goes on to help you make sound investment decisions and build that bankroll!  Roger Casey (@LatticeProject) offers a Full Investment Guide on Wednesday’s with our preferred cash game plays specifically for FantasyDraft and GPP strategy.  Check it out!

Mark Smith

Mark Smith is a contributor at You can find him on FantasyDraft as smithma3 and on Twitter @msmithwc

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