Ap-Paul-ingly Affordable

At just $14,700, Paul George is a great investment facing a team he has averaged 41.4 fantasy points against in two meetings so far this year. Check out daily fantasy expert Ricky Sanders’ recommended plays to help you fill out your roster for today’s NBA contests.

Guards:

Victor Oladipo, Pacers, $14,500 – Those who like to box score hunt will not be pleased with Victor Oladipo’s last game against the Raptors. However, the matchup is still incredibly favorable, as Toronto ranks dead last in defensive efficiency against opposing shooting guards (SGs). Myles Turner is listed as questionable for this game, and if he were to sit, Oladipo would only be relied upon more heavily in the offense. Sans Turner on the court this season, Oladipo easily leads the team in usage rate (31.3-percent) and he is averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute (FPPM). Over the course of his last seven games, Oladipo has played fewer than 33 minutes just once. In other words, an average performance at 1.22 FPPM would equate to about 40.25 fantasy points in 33 minutes…and this is no average matchup.

Tyreke Evans, Grizzlies, $12,200 – Assuming Mario Chalmers and Chandler Parsons sit again on Friday, Evans will be forced into heavy minutes once again. If Evans did not continuously turn the ball over last game, he would not have gotten pulled early in the fourth quarter. Essentially, his upside stretches far beyond the 30 minutes he played last game which is substantial even in a poor matchup versus the Spurs. Thus far, Evans has averaged 40.32 fantasy points per-36 minutes or about 1.12 FPPM. His production against the Spurs was surprisingly close to in line with his season averages so minutes will continue to equal fantasy production for this efficient fantasy producer. For what it is worth, the Spurs matchup has not slowed him down recently, has he has topped 32 fantasy points in each of his last two meetings against them. In a normal matchup, Evans is about a $14,000 player with this limited rotation, so the matchup is more than built into the price. Just make sure either one or both of the aforementioned players sit before locking Evans in.

Alec Burks, Jazz, $6,900 – Speaking of players reliant on the statuses of some of his teammates, Alec Burks is coming fresh off a 53-plus fantasy point outburst last night when both Rodney Hood and Raul Neto were deemed inactive. Burks got hurt early and the team rode his momentum to 29 minutes, 28 points (PTS), seven rebounds (REB), five assists (AST), three steals (STL) and one block (BLK). The team even decided to sit Ricky Rubio down the stretch which has become all too common for the team’s starting point guard (PG). Amazingly, Rubio has played more than 27 minutes just once since Nov. 15, so these Burks minutes are not an outlier assuming these players continue to sit. At this absurd price point, Burks would be a player to lock into all lineups if the same players sit out on Friday evening.

Forward/Center:

Anthony Davis, Pelicans, $18,300 – Derrick Favors has been playing center since the injury to Rudy Gobert which leaves Jonas Jerebko matched up against Anthony Davis. If there were ever a mismatch to exploit, this would be the once, especially considering Davis is about $1,000 underpriced. The pace of this game is not overly concerning as the played fast last night with plenty of three-guard lineups. Other than their twin towers, the Pelicans are a small team, so they will gladly match up with three guards of their own for extended stretches (Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo, E’Twaun Moore). If the pace of this game is decent, Davis should have plenty of time to dominate Jerebko and/or Thabo Sefolosha or whomever the Jazz throw at him. He is an athletic freak, and one of the NBA leaders in minutes per game, so he is worth rostering at this value cost despite his ongoing injury issues. If he stays out of foul trouble, and remains healthy, it would not be surprising for him to score 30-plus points in this game.

Paul George, Thunder, $14,700 – The Thunder’s 107.75 implied points at home are the third highest of any team on the slate and they will need production from their wings in order to get there. Russell Westbrook is dealing with a hand injury, which is not expected to keep him out, but it could affect his performance slightly. In two previous meetings against the Timberwolves, George led the team in minutes each time and he produced 41.75 and 41 fantasy points respectively. Whereas Westbrook has not exceeded 2.70x value at his current price in either one of the meetings against the Timberwolves, George has topped 2.75x value each time. He is not really the type of player Taj Gibson is comfortable guarding due to his ability to stretch the floor and Andrew Wiggins is nothing more than an average defender versus spot up shooters as well. Regardless of who attempts to guard George, he should have his way with them, and he should be a lock for 40-plus fantasy points again.

Carmelo Anthony, Thunder, $12,600 – One member of the Thunder is not enough here especially when Anthony only costs fantasy owners 12.6-percent of their budget. By comparison, Carmelo Anthony will cost about 13.4-percent of the budget on competing sites, so FantasyDraft is offering a discount on him tonight. Only four teams have allowed a higher field goal percentage to opposing frontcourts than the Timberwolves: Nets, Nuggets, Magic and Pacers. Basically, it makes sense that Anthony has shot 47-plus percent from the field in both his meetings against this team in 2017 despite the fact he is shooting 41.8-percent from the field for the year. For what it is worth, Gibson is a 19th percentile defender versus spot up shooters and Anthony has morphed into a pure spot up shooter in this offense. With the additional bonus awarded for three-pointers made on FantasyDraft, that is not necessarily a bad thing. If the team is going to reach 107 points, they will need solid performances from both their starting forwards. Do not be afraid to stack them in the same lineup against a defense allowing the 10th most points per game (107.2).

*Note: stats are accurate as of Thursday, November 30

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

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