Rising Favors-ability Ratings

Derrick Favors has averaged 34.50 fantasy points per game without Rudy Gobert this year and now the team will take on a Nets team that has been torched by opposing centers. Check out daily fantasy expert Ricky Sanders’ recommended plays to help you fill out your roster for today’s NBA contests.

Guards:

Lou Williams, Cavaliers, $11,100 – Have you been targeting the Cavaliers defense (or lack thereof) lately? If not, your bankroll is probably feeling the impact because the Cavaliers rank dead last in defensive efficiency and they have allowed the third most points per game (PPG): 112.1. While Lou Williams is not a point guard (PG) in the truest sense, PGs have only failed to reach 40 fantasy points against the Cavaliers four times this season and one was Kemba Walker’s 37.75 fantasy point outing last game. The Cavaliers have allowed the most points per possession (PPP) on isolation plays this year (1.14) and Williams leads the Clippers regulars in PPP on the play type. Without Patrick Beverley in the rotation, Williams has been playing an insane number of minutes. Over the course of the last three games, Williams has averaged 37.6 minutes per game. Facing a defense that ranks 29th in PG efficiency defense, fading him is a scary proposition with those sorts of minute allotments.

Spencer Dinwiddie, Nets, $10,800 – D’Angelo Russell has been ruled out for Friday’s tilt against the Jazz so Spencer Dinwiddie will draw the start. As a starter this season, Dinwiddie has averaged 13.0 points per game (PPG), 3.3 rebounds per game (RPG), 6.3 assists per game (APG) and 2.0 three-pointers per game (3PPG) en route to 29.0 fantasy points per game (FPPG). However, Dinwiddie started alongside Russell in one of those games, so the sample size is a bit tainted. When starting for Russell, Dinwiddie has averaged 33.0 minutes per game (MPG), 17.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 8.5 APG and 38 FPPG. The Jazz starting lineup sans Rudy Gobert has only posted a 76.7 offensive rating and a 128.7 defensive rating. In other words, the lineup has played awful together, and their defense is not nearly as stout as when Gobert plays. Although the cost to roster him rose a decent amount from his last start, there is still value to rostering Dinwiddie at this mid-tier price point in this spot.

Rodney Hood, Jazz, $10,400 – With Gobert off the court, no player on the Jazz has garnered a higher usage rate (USG%) than Rodney Hood. Following Hood’s 30-point, 44.25 fantasy point outburst (on 20 shots) last game, Hood now owns a 34.6 USG% with Gobert off the court, edging out Donvoan Mitchell’s 30.0. In fact, Hood even averages more fantasy points per minute (FPPM) than Mitchell without Gobert on the court (1.08-1.01) and yet Mitchell will cost nearly $14,000 to roster tonight. On the other hand, Hood’s price tag sits at only $10,400 despite taking 12 three-point attempts against the Knicks on Wednesday. Since he comes off the bench, his name may not even be on the radar for the masses, but he is low key one of the top plays on the entire slate. No team plays at a faster place than the Nets and they rank 25th in defensive efficiency versus backcourts. All aboard the Hood bandwagon with him leading the offense for the second consecutive game.

Forward/Center:

LeBron James, Cavaliers, $21,900 – The current constitution of the Cavaliers has no choice but to rely on LeBron James to basically carry their entire offense. With Derrick Rose out, the team has been starting James, Kevin Love, J.R. Smith, a pure spot up shooter (Jae Crowder) and an offensive zero (Iman Shumpert). Neither Crowder nor Shumpert are capable of habitually creating their own offense, so James is forced to lure in their defenders and pass to them, essentially creating their offense for them. The last two small forwards (SFs) not named Dante Cunningham to square off against the Clippers have managed at least 54 fantasy points: Robert Covington and Paul George. Okay, so James is not a SF in the truest sense but no one on the team is capable of guarding him. Heading into tonight, James has scored at least 57 fantasy points in six of his last eight games, and Vegas is projecting their team as the second highest scoring contest of the night. The game atmosphere is solid, and James presents a huge mismatch for the Clippers personnel, so expect a monster performance once again.

T.J. Warren, Suns, $12,700 – The Lakers present such a favorable matchup for T.J. Warren that it is no wonder he has erupted against this team in each of the two previous meetings. In those games, Warren produced lines of 23-8-3 and 24-8-4 respectively which has led to 39 and 43 fantasy points in those games. Lonzo Ball has struggled offensively but his defense has low key been solid and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has always had the reputation of a solid defender as well. Hell, the Lakers rank fourth in defensive efficiency so fantasy owners need to pick and choose players to deploy against them. Warren has made the most in this spot beforehand and his minutes were limited last night due to blowout. Fantasy owners do not need to worry about the back-to-back for that reason so go ahead and fire up Warren with the frontcourt likely thin again (Tyson Chandler has already been ruled out and Greg Monroe played sizeable minutes last night).

Derrick Favors, Jazz, $12,100 – One Nets player is simply not enough tonight as Ricky Rubio is listed as questionable as well. The rotation will only tighten further without the team’s starting PG so most of the main assets will play minutes into the mid-30s. Over the course of the last three games, Favors has averaged 32.4 MPG, 13.0 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 1.0 steals per game (SPG), 2.0 blocks per game (BPG) and 34.5 FPPG. Centers have posted some outlier outings versus the Nets this year as Nikola Jokic has topped 50 fantasy points twice (including a 74.5 fantasy point explosion), Brook Lopez produced 58.5 fantasy points, Nikola Vucevic dropped 63 fantasy points and even Myles Turner went for 51 fantasy points. Essentially, Favors’ upside far exceeds his price tag, so he can be safely rostered in all formats.

*Note: stats are accurate as of Thursday, November 16

 

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

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