Five Numbers to Know for Week 6

Here are five numbers worth knowing heading into Week 6 of the NFL season:

414

– Number of yards allowed by Terrance Mitchell in coverage this season

Part of the reason opposing teams have been picking on Terrance Mitchell is because they are afraid to target Marcus Peters but only Jalen Mills has been targeted more times (54) than Mitchell (47). Additionally, the Chiefs have yet to shadow a receiver with Peters (or any cornerback) so they almost always line up their corners on the same sides of the field. This makes targeting their scheme with opposing receivers easy from a fantasy perspective with Peters lining up on the left side of the formation 90-percent of the time and Mitchell lining up on the right on 88-percent of defensive snaps. This week, the Steelers are the lucky receiving core to match up against Mitchell and multiple players have a chance to succeed. Antonio Brown was targeted a whopping 19 times against the elite Jaguars cornerback duo and accumulated 157 yards. Both he and Martavis Bryant will have beatable matchups throughout the course of the game so each is a solid investment at their respective price tag.

12

– Total passing TDs allowed by the Patriots defense to this point

On the road against one of the teams tied the AFC East lead, the Patriots are listed as 9.5 favorites in a game with a projected 47.5 over/under. Game flow dictates the Jets will likely be playing from behind against a Patriots passing defense that ranks dead last according to Football Outsiders’ defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) statistic. In other words, Josh McCown should be throwing early and often in one of the most favorable matchups of the season. The Patriots have allowed 96.8 passing yards per game to number one wide receivers (WRs), 55.1 yards per game to number two WRs, 43.5 yards per game to “other” WRs, 59.8 yards per game to tight ends (TEs) and 73.8 yards per game in the air to opposing running backs (RBs). Consequently, McCown, Jermaine Kearse, Elijah McGuire and even Austin Seferian-Jenkins all have a shot to inflict some damage on this weak Patriots defense. Vegas’ 19.0-point implied total for the Jets is too low for my liking and therefore targeting their offense in DFS is recommended due to their reasonable prices across the board.

50-percent

DeSean Jackson’s target rate beyond 20 yards

Last year, Jameis Winston possessed exactly one downfield threat in the passing game and his name was Mike Evans. In fact, Evans was Winston’s favorite target no matter how far downfield he could get but that is not the case in 2017. In the offseason, the Buccaneers added DeSean Jackson to try and stretch the field and alleviate some of the attention off Evans…and that is exactly what he has done. When Winston has attempted to stretch the field, he has looked Jackson’s way on half his throws beyond 20 yards. In Week 6, the team will square off against the Cardinals and Patrick Peterson, which means Jackson will draw the dream matchup with Justin Bethel. Thus far, Bethel has yielded 343 yards in coverage including 50 yards after the catch and a whopping four TDs. Additionally, only eight corners have allowed more yards per cover snap than Bethel so he is clearly susceptible to the deep ball. To put it differently, this is one of the best possible matchups for Jackson.

303

– Yards allowed to opposing running backs by the Saints defense

Matthew Stafford looked hobbled last week, and if that continues, then he will have issues escaping the Saints pass rush. The Lions always scheme their backs into the passing attacks but they will need to even more so than usual if Stafford remains hobbled. Theo Riddick has been targeted 27 times already this year (11th most of any RB) and Ameer Abdullah has been targeted 12 times. New Orleans’ Mercedes-Benz Superdome is often referred to as the Coors Field of daily fantasy football because a study done by Matthew Freedman of FantasyLabs showed it basically is. With the Lions expected to be playing from behind (listed as 3.5 point underdogs), they should be forced to rely on their receiving backs a healthy amount. Both backs are solid pass-catchers but Riddick takes the cake in terms of his receiving ability and he has now caught three-plus passes in four of five games this year. Furthermore, it should be noted the Saints rank 30th in rushing DVOA and their passing defense is improved in other areas. Essentially, a fair amount of the offensive workload should funnel through the two backs whether it be via the ground or the air. Both should come equipped with reasonably high floors in this matchup and extremely high ceilings.

100-percent

– Percentage of games the Browns have allowed multiple touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this year

Fading Deshaun Watson this week is a risky proposition considering the Browns have allowed multiple TDs to opposing QBs in every game this season and in 18 of their last 21 contests. Over the course of his last two games, Watson has thrown for nine TDs and rushed for one as well, so it is fair to call him the hottest player in the NFL. No Browns receiver has a chance to cover DeAndre Hopkins one-on-one as evident by Hopkins’ long TD reception last week in double coverage. Hopkins legitimately may have the best hands in the league and he is one of just many weapons for Watson (before even mentioning the fact Watson has rushed for 179 yards already this year). In cash games, Watson is bordering on must-play due to his combination of high floor (likely multiple TDs) and insane upside. Do not be the guy who fails to use him in either 50/50s or double ups.

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

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