Five Numbers to Know for Week 5

Here are five numbers worth knowing heading into Week 5 of the NFL season:

61

– The most yards gained by a pass-catcher against the Jaguars defense so far this year

Passing against the Jaguars is one of the most challenging tasks in the NFL this season. Following the addition of A.J. Bouye in the offseason, the Jaguars now possess two corners who graded inside the top 23 in terms of coverage rating last year. Although the two have flipped where they rank on the leaderboard this year, both grade as top 22 cover corners once again this year, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Amongst corners who have played at least 87 total snaps, only Bryce Callahan has allowed fewer yards in coverage. By comparison, Callahan has allowed a 80.1 QB rating when he has been targeted compared to a 23.4 rating when targeting Ramsey (second best in the NFL). In fact, both Ramsey and Bouye have each yielded a QB rating of 35 or less when they have been targeted. This dominant cornerback (CB) duo is one to avoid and Delanie Walker, a tight end (TE), actually gained the most yards of any pass-catcher against this defense (in Week 2). The way to beat this team is to pound the football as evident by the fact no team has allowed more rushing yards (662) nor more yards per carry (5.7). Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers face this defense at home on Sunday.

121.0

– Amount of yards allowed to opposing number one WRs by the Buccaneers this season

Brent Grimes is literally the only competent corner on the team and cannot do everything by himself. Not only have all the team’s other corners graded outside the top 80 in terms of their coverage ability this season but the safeties have been putrid as well. Thus far, only Jalen Mills has allowed more fantasy points to WRs he has “covered” than Vernon Hargreaves and the Buccaneers have played one fewer game than every other team besides the Dolphins. The Buccaneers have yet to shadow an opposing number one WR so this secondary can be beaten by simply moving around top targets throughout the formation. Now, the Buccaneers will face a Patriots offense that has thrown for more yards than any other team on Thursday Night Football. Literally any Patriots game can turn into a shootout because their defense in horrendous and their offense in great. As far as Thursday Night Football games go, this should be one of the higher-scoring affairs (although last week set a very high mark).

Two

– Number of passing TDs thrown by the Colts, Dolphins and 49ers

Some offenses in the league are dreadful and it is shocking to see the Dolphins, led by Jay Cutler, on this list. The Dolphins offense is loaded with weapons (DeVante Parker, Jarvis Landry, Jay Ajayi and Julius Thomas) and yet the team has only thrown two TDs in three games. To be fair, he and the Dolphins have played one fewer game than the Colts and 49ers. Of these three teams, both the Dolphins and 49ers rank in the bottom six of time of possession this year which means opposing teams have held the ball against them for a majority of games. For fantasy purposes, this means starting players on opposing offenses against them should be a profitable endeavor since they will run a higher number of plays compared to usual. Another similarity between these teams has been the poor play of the offensive lines as both Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer have been sacked 13-plus times. This week, the two bottom-of-the-barrel offenses square off against one another so something has got to give. The Colts are listed as 1.5-point home favorites and the 49ers corners are awful. Consequently, Brissett who has run for two TDs this year (and is destined to be on the field longer than normal against the 49ers), should prove to be a solid value at $11,200 despite his poor play to this point.

Eight

– Number of TDs WRs have scored against the Titans already

Last week, DeAndre Hopkins and the Texans completely roasted this Titans secondary. Although Deshaun Watson is more mobile QB than Cutler, it is difficult to believe this will not be the week the Dolphins passing game gets going. DeVante Parker will draw a matchup on the outside against Adoree’ Jackson this week who was the same corner Hopkins torched in Week 4. To this point, only Eli Apple has been surrendered more TDs to the receivers he has covered than Jackson and QBs have posted a 115.9 QB rating when targeting the Titans corner. Meanwhile, Parker is an up-and-coming receiver who has managed at least 69 yards receiving in every game this year. In the preseason, Cutler said he thought the sky was the limit for Parker this year because he both possesses breakaway speed and can beat a defender at the high point (aka in the red zone). Simply put: Titans corners are outmatched against a talented receiver again this week so look for Parker to eat.

1,282

– Total passing yards for Carson Palmer this season

Quietly, Carson Palmer is having a monstrous season in the yardage department. Sure, he has been sacked more than any other QB (17 times) and has thrown the third most interceptions (five), but the Cardinals have no choice but to rely heavily on the passing game every single week. Therefore, it should not be surprising to hear Palmer has attempted 48-plus passes in three of his four games this year and he leads the NFL in passing attempts by 17! With all that volume on weekly basis, both he and his pass-catchers are bound to fall into monstrous performances by accident. The Eagles secondary comes equipped with the most targeted and (arguably) worst corner in the NFL (Mills) so the passing game will have a spot to exploit all afternoon. Look for at least one of John Brown and/or Jaron Brown to have themselves a big performance and Palmer comes equipped with a ton of upside at a reasonable $11,000 cost.

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

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