The Target Line: BMW Championship

Welcome back to another edition of The Target Line.  After a week off, we head just outside of Chicago for the BMW Championship.  This tournament is the third of four events included in the Fed Ex Cup playoffs.  We are down to the top 70 golfers in points and this tournament will cut that number to 30 where the scores will reset for the Tour Championship.  An important point to note is that this is a NO-CUT event, so we get to enjoy all four rounds from our golfers barring the dreaded WD.

The course this week is Conway Farms, which played host to this event in 2015 and 2013, so we have a limited amount of course history we can examine.  Conway Farms is a par 71 that measures in at approximately 7,233 yards.  The course website describes it as being “build around the traditions of Scottish links golf.”  The fairways and greens here are bent-grass and it includes a drivable par 4 15th hole and 595-yard par 5 to close. The last two leaderboards at Conway Farms have been a mix of bombers and accurate drivers, so I do not expect bombers to have any huge advantage.  Let’s take a look at the stats I will be examining for this week.  These stats will be a golfer’s rank in this week’s field, over the last five tournaments.

  • SG:T2G (Strokes Gained: Tee to Green)
  • SG: P (Strokes Gained: Putting)
  • BoB% (Birdie or Better%)
  • GIR% (Greens in Regulation)
  • BS (Ballstriking)
  • Scramb% (Scrambling%)
  • DA% (Driving Accuracy)
  • Par4:Score  (Par 4 Scoring)

In addition to the stats, we will also look at recent form and any pertinent course history from 2015 and 2013 when the BMW was held at Conway Farms.  The following are some of the golfers who I will be using in my FantasyDraft lineups.

 

Jason Day ($17,200):

Day came back from a rough start last week at the Dell Technologies and ended up with a T-25 finish.  This week we do not have to worry about him missing a cut with a bad first round and his price is still great for his upside.  He won here in 2015 and finished T-4 in 2013.  His recent form has been great also with finishes of T-25, 6, 9, and 24th.  He, ranks 2nd (BoB%), 14th (SG:P), 17th (SG:T2G)  and 17th (BS) in this field.

 

Henrik Stenson ($16,400):

I love Stenson’s price this week!  His recent form has been great with finishes of 17th, WIN, 13th, and 17th in his last four tournaments.  Henrik has a T-10 (2015) and T-33 (2013) in his last two trips to Conway Farms.  I think he makes for a great GPP play.

 

Kevin Na ($14,300): 

Na seems to have his game clicking recently with finishes of T-6, T-29, and T4 over his last three tournaments.  He also finished 10th at Conway Farms in 2015.  His field ranks are 1st (BoB%), 8th (SG:P), 6th (Par4:Score)  and 5th in (DA%).  I look for him to continue the upward momentum and love his high birdie or better percentage in a no-cut event.

Zach Johnson ($13,900): 

ZJ just seems to be very comfortable here.  Conway Farms is a Tom Fazio design and Johnson got used to playing a lot of those while in Iowa and Georgia.  It has definitely shown on the leaderboard with his finishes of 13th (2015) and a huge WIN in 2013.  ZJ’s field stats will not blow your mind this week, but this is just a gut play for me based on comfort and some great course history.

 

Others to Consider

Jordan Spieth ($19,600): 

He has been on fire so fade him if you dare.  Two T-16’s at Conway Farms and recent form is…amazing!

Justin Rose ($16,000):

His game has really come around and it showed last week with a T-10 at the Dell Technologies.  I could definitely see another top-10 this week.

Paul Casey ($17,000):

Keeps firing off great finishes, but looking for that elusive win.  12th in field in (BoB%)  1st (BS)  4th (SG:T2G)

 

That’s it for The Target Line this week!  As always, you can check me out at FantasyDegens.com.  We are adding new features all of the time to help you evolve your DFS game.  FantasyDraft has some great contests this week and remember…RAKE FREE H2H!  As always, if you have yet to play on FantasyDraft, sign up through the FantasyDegens link here to join and you will also receive a free month of access to FantasyDegens.com.

Matt Reynolds

Matt Reynolds

You can catch Matt Reynolds at FantasyDegens.com where we love to chat all things sports and have great tools available to help you evolve your DFS game or on Twitter @GiveHim6UT

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