Lynn-kedIn

by · August 22, 2017

Lance Lynn will face the Padres at home tonight and his price is the cheapest it has been in quite some time. Feel free to start him in both cash games and tournaments. Check out daily fantasy expert Ricky Sanders’ recommended plays to help you fill out your roster for today’s MLB.

Infield:

Kris Bryant, Cubs, $9,900 – Out of nowhere, Homer Bailey racked up 10 strikeouts against the Cubs in a matchup against them just six days ago. However, the start was not all positive as he yielded six earned runs (ERs) as well in just 5.2 IP. Having faced this very team within the last week, the advantage goes to the hitters because they have recently seen his full arsenal. In other words, there are no stops he could pull out to surprise them. For the season, righties have hit Bailey harder than lefties and their numbers are astounding: .457 wOBA, 1.67 HR/9 rate, .383/.470/.612 slash line, 27.7-percent line drive rate and a .441 BABIP. While the BABIP is unsustainable, it is clear Bailey has a glaring weakness and Kris Bryant is looking forward to taking advantage. Although Bryant’s numbers are down slightly this year, he still sports a .390 wOBA, .247 ISO, .290/.386/.537 slash line, 36.8-percent hard hit rate and 44.0-percent fly ball rate against RHP. In power-friendly Great American Ballpark, Bryant has an excellent shot to go deep.

Jason Kipnis, Indians, $8,400 – Targeting LHHs against Doug Fister has been a profitable endeavor all season long so why stop now? On Tuesday, Fister draws a brutal matchup against an Indians squad that is filled with switch hitters and/or lefties, so expect him to struggle mightily. One of the bats who should cause him a great deal of trouble is Jason Kipnis in the two hole. While Kipnis is amidst a down season, he has started to turn things around over the last week: .258/.303/.613 with a .376 wOBA and three bombs. Fister relies heavily on his fastball (62.7-percent of the time) and Kipnis has rated as the team’s third best hitter against the pitch since the beginning of last season behind only Carlos Santana (left with a sore back last night) and Jose Ramirez (one home run since mid-July). By default, Kipnis rates as the best play on the team (and one of the cheapest) but the Indians are a team that certainly can be stacked.

Outfield:

J.D. Martinez, Diamondbacks, $9,300 – Even in late August, J.D. Martinez’s numbers against southpaws look straight out of a video game. In 56 at-bats (ABs) in the split, Martinez has crushed LHP to the tune of a .564 wOBA, .518 ISO, .411/.507/.929 slash line, 54.8-percent hard hit rate and a 38.1-percent fly ball rate. With numbers like these, the ballpark he is hitting in almost does not matter, especially if he is facing a pitcher like Tommy Milone. Over the course of 24.1 IP against RHHs this year, Milone has been smashed for a .452 wOBA, 3.70 HR/9 rate (!), .366/.408/.696 slash line, 24.7-percent line drive rate and 37.6-percent fly ball rate…all while playing half his games in pitcher-friendly Citi Field. In a matchup against arguably the best hitter in the game right now against lefties, Milone is in a world of trouble. Start Martinez confidently in all formats.

Billy Hamilton, Reds, $7,800 – Once again, Billy Hamilton will draw a matchup against a pitcher who struggles to hold runners so the center fielder is an elite play on this slate. Since the start of the 2013 season, only Jon Lester, Ubaldo Jimenez, Cole Hamels and Jake Arrieta have allowed more steals to opposing baserunners than probable starter John Lackey (85). In 2017, no player has stolen more bases than Hamilton (51) and he has eight more than the next guy (Dee Gordon). The Cubs just traded for Rene Rivera who has thrown out 38-percent of opposing base stealers but Hamilton consistently steals on Yadier Molina so there is no reason to worry about him getting mowed down. As if the speed upside were not enough, lefties have managed a .380 wOBA and .285/.360/.550 to lefties this season. All aboard the Hamilton bandwagon as he has the possibility for multiple hits, steals and runs in this contest.

Pitchers:

Chris Archer, Rays, $24,000 – Easily the top pitching play on tonight’s slate is Chris Archer at home against the Blue Jays. Archer relies heavily on his hard slider (44.4-percent) and the Blue Jays rank as the league’s third worst hitting team against the pitch. No wonder Archer struck out 10 Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre less than a week ago. This year, Archer has struck out 26.5-percent of opposing hitters on the road but a whopping 33.1-percent of hitters at home. Additionally, hitters have posted a .312 wOBA against Archer away from home compared to .284 in the friendly confines of Tropicana Field. Oh, by the way, the Blue Jays rank in the bottom 10 of wOBA, wRC+, AVG, OBP, SLG and hard hit rate against RHP. Spend up for Archer and sleep like a baby.

Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks, $18,000 – If looking for a cheaper SP1 alternative, look no further than Patrick Corbin who has induced a double-digit swinging strike rate in nine consecutive games. The Mets possess exactly three scary hitters against LHP: Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores and Travis D’Arnaud. If able to silence them, it should be smooth sailing for Corbin against a team striking out at a healthy 24.3-percent rate in the split. The Mets also strike out at the third lowest rate and rank in the bottom 10 of wOBA and line drive rate against southpaws. Citi Field is a gigantic park upgrade from Chase Field so that is a major plus in this matchup as well. Combine all those factors and it is reasonable to expect Corbin to flirt with double-digit strikeouts for the fourth straight start.

Lance Lynn, Cardinals, $14,800 – Like the aforementioned Archer, pitch data strongly favors Lance Lynn in his matchup on Tuesday evening. Tonight, the Padres will head to St. Louis to face Lynn who throws his fastball 78.5-percent of the time, and they rank dead last in effectiveness against the pitch type. Crazily, the pricing algorithm has dropped Lynn’s price in this spot as well even though it is arguably the nuts spot for him. What more needs to be said? Lynn against a bottom tier offense who strikes out a lot at home? Yes please.

*Stats are accurate as of Monday, August 21

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

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