Exploit the Achilles Healy

Ryon Healy is one of the game’s best hitters against left-handers and will now face a southpaw who ranks in the bottom 10 of SIERA. Healy is too cheap to pass on. Check out daily fantasy expert Ricky Sanders’ recommended plays to help you fill out your roster for today’s MLB.

Infield:

Ryon Healy, Athletics, $6,900 – The most mispriced player of the slate is undoubtedly Ryon Healy in an elite matchup against Wade Miley. Not only has Miley posted the highest BB rate of any qualified pitcher this year but he also owns the eighth highest SIERA and ninth highest AVG against. Combine all those factors and one can only conclude Miley is the definition of a gas can. In 93.1 IP against RHHs this year, Miley has been roasted to the tune of a .376 wOBA, 1.64 HR/9 rate, .302/.392/.484 slash line, 24.3-percent line drive rate, 34.2-percent hard hit rate and 12.2-percent BB rate while only striking them out at an 18.7-percent rate. Meanwhile, Healy leads the Athletics with a whopping .448 wOBA against LHP this year and he is slashing .371/.391/.685 against them. This is a clash between one of the league’s worst pitchers against righties and one of the best hitters against lefties…and somehow Healy is priced below $7,000. Take this discount all the way to the bank (or, in this case, the PayoutZone).

Logan Forsythe, Dodgers, $6,000 – Speaking of guys who are underpriced, Logan Forsythe will be fortunate enough to face a lefty in one of the top hitting environments on Thursday. Forsythe, who has posted a .400-plus wOBA in the split (.415 to be exact), is priced like a scrub for some unbeknownst reason in a matchup against Anthony Banda. Of course, Banda is a top prospect of the Diamondbacks’ and he will probably be a solid Major League pitcher within a few years. However, Banda is still a long way away from being a dominant starter in the pros and he has not been tested like this yet. Currently, the Dodgers rank number one in wOBA against LHP and every single one of their hitters presents a difficult matchup for Banda. While he has struck out righties at a 33.3-percent rate in a limited sample size, his strikeout rate projects more in the low 20s if looking at his Minor League stats. If that is the case, Banda will just be another left-hander for Forsythe to tee off against. His skills far exceed his cost so accept a gift when one is given to you.

Outfield:

Michael Conforto, Mets, $9,200 – If spending up for one hitter, Michael Conforto finds himself in an excellent spot against Vince Velasquez in Citizens Bank Park. In seven career at-bats (ABs) against Velasquez, Conforto has made contact six times and produced four hits for an average exit velocity of 89.9mph. Although that number does not jump off the page, Velasquez’s .373 wOBA, .281/.388/.484 slash line, 25.3-percent line drive rate and 36.1-percent hard hit rate allowed to LHHs all do. On the other hand, Conforto leads the Mets handily in wOBA against RHP now that Jay Bruce has been shipped to Cleveland. Hell, Conforto has hit the ball hard 40.9-percent of the time with a 25.0-percent line drive rate and 39.2-percent fly ball rate, so it is no wonder he is slashing .310/.420/.594 in the split. Since Velasquez has only missed his bat one time in their previous meetings, it is unlikely he induces many swings-and-misses this go-around…especially when taking into consideration Velasquez’s miniscule swinging strike rates produced in his last five starts (5.2, 9.3, 6.2, 2.5 and 5.3-percent respectively). All aboard the Conforto train tonight.

Kike Hernandez, Dodgers, $6,600 – One Dodgers bat is not enough against the rookie Banda in the hitters’ haven of Chase Field. The best offense in the split will be enjoying a positive park shift and squaring off against an inexperienced youngster who has not yet truly been tested. In other words, the kid is in a world of trouble. Kike Hernandez, while not the first name thought of when targeting Dodgers, owns a .392 wOBA against LHP this year with an insane .355 ISO (second highest on team) and is slashing .252/.355/.607. Essentially, for a bargain hitter, Hernandez possesses a ridiculous amount of upside. Anytime he steps into the box against a lefty, he is a threat to go deep, and Banda is no different. In a limited sample, Banda has yielded a 42.9-percent hard hit rate and 61.5-percent fly ball rate to righties this year. Assuming those trends continue, there should be multiple homers off the bats of Dodgers, and Hernandez is amongst the likeliest of candidates.

Pitchers:

Jacob deGrom, Mets, $24,600 – What really is there to say about Jacob deGrom versus the Phillies? Other than the red-hot Odubel Herrera, there really is not much to worry about in this matchup. If searching for downside, deGrom has been substantially worse on the road this year (.311 wOBA allowed on road versus .268 wOBA at home). Otherwise, the Phillies rank in the bottom 10 of wOBA, wRC+, ISO, BB rate, OBP, SLG and hard hit rate while striking out at a 22.0-percent clip. It should be noted deGrom has produced 29.80 and 25.30 fantasy points in his last two road starts respectively (at San Diego and at Seattle). Amongst all the aces, deGrom may be the safest bet for 20-plus fantasy points. Feel free to use him in both cash games and tournaments.

James Paxton, Mariners, $24,000 – James Paxton is in a similarly excellent spot to deGrom but he may even possess more upside. Lately, Paxton’s schedule has been absolutely brutal (literally five of the toughest possible matchups in a row) and yet Paxton has managed 24-plus fantasy points in six consecutive games. The Angels strike out at an uncomfortably low rate but Paxton has recently whiffed seven Royals, 10 Red Sox and seven Astros en route to monstrous performances. Now, Paxton will square off against an Angels team whose active hitters cumulatively rank dead last in wOBA against LHP and he will do so in the friendly confines of home. Simply put: there is no reason to fade Paxton. He is an elite play in all formats.

Lance Lynn, Cardinals, $15,000 – If looking for some salary relief at the starting pitcher position, look no further than Lance Lynn. When Lynn last failed to reach to reach double-digit fantasy points, the month was June. Since Jun. 24, Lynn has only failed to reach 19 fantasy points twice and he has thrown at least 6.0 innings in every start but one during that streak. Lynn limits hard contact for opponents and the Royals do not produce a ton of hard contact. Therefore, this is a nice correlation spot, and one where he could potentially pitch extra deep into the game. With the Royals only being implied to score 3.9 runs, Lynn is a legit threat to compete for the positional lead in fantasy-points-per-dollar.

*Stats are accurate as of Wednesday, August 9

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

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