The Target Line: PGA Championship

Welcome back to another edition of “The Target Line.”  The fourth and final major of the year is upon us with the 99th PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, NC. The course is usually the site of the Wells Fargo Championship, which was moved to Eagle Point this year to accommodate some major changes to the landscape. The course will play a par 71 at approximately 7,600 yards.  Some of the changes include:

  • New Bermuda installed on greens
  • Many trees removed to help sunlight hit greens and reshape course
  • Revamp of front nine (new holes and extra bunkering)

Quail Hollow Club ends with “The Green Mile”…a three-hole stretch where water borders the greens and the tee shots will be tough. The 18th has a creek running along the left side and will require two very accurate shots to the green. The course should provide the total test of a champion: distance, accuracy, course management and some magic with the flat stick! Some of the stats we will be looking at this week include:

  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G)
  • Bogey Avoidance (BogA)
  • Birdie or Better % (BOB%)
  • Greens in Regulation % > 200yrds (GIR%>200)
  • Par 4 Efficiency (450-500 yards)
  • Scrambling %
  • Driving Distance (DD)

This week we will use course history from the Well’s Fargo (Quail Hollow Club) from 2013-2016. We will also take a look at recent form from the last four tournaments played in order to get an idea for how our golfers are trending headed into this week. Here are some of the guys I am considering for my core this week:

Hideki Matsuyama: ($16,900)

Matsuyama will be a popular play after his big win Sunday at the WGC Bridgestone. His form and stats are just too good for me to ignore though.

  • Recent Form: Win, 14th, 14th, 2nd
  • Course History: 11th, 20th, 38th
  • SG:T2G= 2nd, BogA= 5th, BOB%= 1st, GIR%>200= 95th, Par4 (450-500= 4th, Scrambling %= 16th, DD= 22nd

 

Rickie Fowler: ($16,600)

Rickie closed with a 66 to finish 9th at the WGC Bridgestone.  He is just a stat monster that does it all and I am all on board this week again!

  • Recent Form: 9th, 22nd, 9th, 3rd
  • Course History: 4th, 38th, 73rd
  • SG:T2G= 11th, BogA= 13th, BOB%= 4th, GIR%>200= 28th, Par4 (450-500)= 8th, Scrambling %= 9th, DD= 32nd

 

Daniel Berger: ($14,400)

Berger keeps turning in solid finishes with his T17 at Firestone Sunday.  Winning this season, in addition to his stats and form, make him too good to pass up.

  • Recent Form: 17th, 27th, 5th, 2nd.
  • Course History: 17th, 28th
  • SG:T2G= 24th, BogA= 24th, BOB%= 12th, GIR%>200=48th, Par4 (450-500)= 21st, Scrambling %= 28th, DD= 55th

 

Xander Schauffele: ($12,800)

“X gon’ give it to ya!”  He sure has while turning out a T13 at the WGC last week. He has tremendous value for the price and has a win on tour this season. My only concern is his scrambling ability, but he makes up for it elsewhere.

  • Recent Form: 13th, 20th, Win, 35th
  • Course History: none
  • SG:T2G= 75th, BogA= 62nd, BOB%= 23rd, GIR%>200= 4th, Par4 (450-500)= 10th, Scrambling %= 139th, DD= 17th

 

Also consider:

  • Paul Casey ($14,700): Great recent form; ranks 9th in SG:T2G, 3rd in BogA, and 5th in Scrambling %
  • Tony Finau ($13,100): Excellent recent form; has a 28th and 16th at Quail Hollow.
  • Phil Mickelson ($15,300): Loves this course! History of 4th/4th/11th/3rd.
  • Webb Simpson ($13,000): Home course of sorts; three of four cuts made with a 2nd in 2015.

Sleeper Pick – Lucas Glover: ($12,100) A lower priced guy that really caught my eye this week. He has made three of four cuts at Quail Hollow with an 8th in 2016. 22nd in SG:T2G, 12th in BogA, 16th in GIR%>200, 62nd in DD.

 

That is it for this week! Be sure to check us out at FantasyDegens.com where we have a lot of great tools to help evolve your DFS game. Additionally, you can find myself and our other experts in our chat for up-to-the-minute notes should weather and/or other factors come into play. Check out the great contests on FantasyDraft.com and try out the Rake Free H2H!  Good luck to everyone and enjoy the golf this weekend!

Matt Reynolds

Matt Reynolds

You can catch Matt Reynolds at FantasyDegens.com where we love to chat all things sports and have great tools available to help you evolve your DFS game or on Twitter @GiveHim6UT

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