Avisail the Seven Seas

Avisail Garcia and the White Sox draw an elite matchup against Nik Turley and his .500-plus wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters so far in his young career. Check out daily fantasy expert Ricky Sanders’ recommended plays to help you fill out your roster for today’s MLB.

Infield:

Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays, $9,600 (Early) – Death, taxes and Josh Donaldson versus a LHP are three of the surest things in life and Donaldson should absolutely tee off against Martin Perez. Playing in power-friendly Ballpark in Arlington, Donaldson will square off a pitcher in which he owns a career .381 AVG against. Over the span of 21 at-bats (ABs), Donaldson has managed five extra-base hits against Perez (four doubles and two bombs) plus he has averaged a 97.6mph average exit velocity. By comparison, Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano are tied for the league lead in average exit velocity at just 95.9mph, so Donaldson has clearly crushed the ball in this individual matchup. As if that were not enough, Donaldson has posted a career .292/.388/.580 slash line against southpaws to complement a hefty .289 ISO and .411 wOBA. With this game expected to be played on a warm, sunny Texas summer day, the park should play even more hitter-friendly than per usual. The Blue Jays are being implied to score 5.6 runs and that may not even be high enough. One thing is for sure: Donaldson should be in all lineups.

Matt Adams, Braves, $8,400 (Late) – Matt Cain’s season has been a tale of two stories. While Cain has held opponents to a .307 in AT&T Park, he has been crushed on the road to the tune of a .340/.419/.520 slash line and .399 wOBA. On the road against left-handers specifically, the numbers get even uglier: .362/.493/.536 slash line, .436 wOBA and a measly 9.6-percent K rate. Cain is vulnerable on the road and vulnerable against lefties so do not miss this perfect opportunity to roster Matt Adams at home in hitter-friendly SunTrust Park. All Adams has done against RHP this year is slash a cool .313/.369/.590 against them with a .276 ISO, .392 wOBA and 42.0-percent hard hit rate against them. If Cain is not going to miss Adams’ bat, he should create hard contact just about every time at the plate. At this price tag, Adams is well worth the investment.

Outfield:

Aaron Judge, Yankees, $11,100 (Late) – Sure Aaron Judge let those who rostered him down last night but he is too good of a hitter to stay down for long. Like the aforementioned Cain, Jesse Chavez has not felt very comfortable outside the friendly confines of home this year. In 37.1 IP away from Angels Stadium, Chavez has been blasted for a 6.03 ERA, .293/.358/.570 slash line and .385 wOBA. Another important aspect to realize in the matchup against Chavez is he is an extreme reverse splits pitcher. While lefties have only managed a .306 wOBA off him this year, righties have produced a whopping .372 wOBA against them. On the road specifically, righties have slashed .318/.363/.595 off Chavez with a .397 wOBA. With numbers like these, Chavez is in deep trouble in Yankee Stadium against arguably the best offense in the game. Quite literally, no one hits the ball harder than Judge (in terms of average exit velocity) so he is the prime candidate to make Chavez and his reverse splits pay in this matchup.

Avisail Garcia, White Sox, $7,600 (Early) – Quietly, even with a game being played in Coors Field on the early slate, the White Sox stack may be the top team to invest in on a per-dollar basis. As per usual, all the bats in Coors Field are extremely pricey whereas the staples in the White Sox lineup are all rather cheap. Why roster this team? Well, they still rank first in baseball in wOBA against LHP and they will square off against a pitcher who has had a rude awakening in his limited time in the big leagues thus far. Righties have had no issues hitting Turley so far as he has yielded a .509 wOBA, 1.17 HR/9 rate, .432/.487/.771 slash line, 30.0-percent line drive rate and 41.9-percent hard hit rate to the handedness. On the league-leading White Sox offense against left-handers, no player owns a higher wOBA in the split this year than Avisail Garcia (.464). To round out his stat line, Garcia has managed a .194 ISO, .448/.464/.642 slash line, 43.1-percent hard hit rate and 21.6-percent line drive rate as well. Go ahead and roster just about any hitter in this lineup but make sure to start with Garcia because is an absolute beast versus southpaws.

Pitchers:

Luis Severino, Yankees, $24,000 (Early) – Rostering pitchers against the Angels can be a scary proposition because they sap the potential upside out of matchups. Even so, the pitching is so terrible on the night slate that it may be worth just biting the bullet and rostering Luis Severino in cash games for his high potential floor anyways. The Angels rank dead last in baseball in wOBA against RHP and they also rank in the bottom 10 of wRC+, ISO, BB rate, AVG, OBP, SLG, hard hit rate and line drive percentage against the handedness…so basically the only disheartening aspects of the matchup are the Angels’ miniscule K rate and the fact this game will be played in Yankee Stadium. Simply put, Severino has been dominant this year, especially at home (.262 wOBA allowed), so he should be able to keep this offense at bay (at least significantly more so than his teammate Michael Pineda). I wish this price tag was about $2,000 cheaper but the lack of alternatives deems him a fine play in 50/50s and double ups.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers, $14,000 (Late) – Facing off against a decent opposing pitcher (Steven Matz), the Dodgers and Hyun-Jin Ryu are surprisingly listed as -194 favorites on today’s slate. In other words, Ryu is listed as the heaviest favorite of any pitcher other than Severino. The matchup is beatable considering the Mets rank 19th in wOBA against LHP and rank in the bottom 10 of wRC+, BB rate, AVG and OBP while striking out at a 23.1-percent rate. Ryu has struck out 22.3-percent of right-handed batters and the downside to his game is all the fly balls he allows. Fortunately, Dodgers Stadium is a tough park to hit the ball out of so the environment should help him out. All-in-all, Ryu is arguably the best per-dollar investment on the night slate and pretty much by default.

Aaron Nola, Phillies, $13,200 (Early) – Pitching on the early slate is a little more interesting than the night slate because Aaron Nola is cheap and heads into this game on a streak of three consecutive games with exactly six Ks. Admittedly, it is concerning the whiff rate on his curveball is down drastically from last season and the Cardinals are the seventh best hitting team against the pitch. However, Nola did induce a ton of swings-and-misses with his fastball and sinker last game so he may attempt to throw those more often for the second consecutive game. It is also noteworthy Dexter Fowler left Wednesday’s game with a quad injury and his absence would be a huge loss for Cardinals as he had been their hottest hitter. Since this will be a day game after a night game, he is a virtual lock to sit out, and that waters down the lineup for Nola. While this is not the safest spot in the world, I have some faith in Nola’s skill set and expect him to finish with a quality start.

*Stats are accurate as of Wednesday, June 21

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

You may also like...

2 Responses

  1. Frederick Schoenig says:

    Thanks for the insight. I think Toronto is playing in Texas not the homer dome in Cincinnati

    • Ricky Sanders Ricky Sanders says:

      Thank you. Wrote Great American Ballpark instead of Ballpark in Arlington. Went ahead and fixed it so I appreciate it!

Leave a Reply