The Liberty Odubel

Odubel Herrera has posted five extra-base hits in his last two games and now is priced like a scrub in a matchup against Bartolo Colon in a great hitting atmosphere. There is no need to fade him. Check out daily fantasy expert Ricky Sanders’ recommended plays to help you fill out your roster for today’s MLB.

Infield:

Jedd Gyorko, Cardinals, $7,800 – Since the start of last season, only Matt Carpenter has produced a higher wOBA against RHP than Jedd Gyorko and Gyorko hits from the right side of the box. While Carpenter draws the normal platoon advantage, Gyorko is forced to work a bit harder than his left-handed cohort. This year alone, Gyorko sports a .339/.395/.593 slash line, .254 ISO and .417 wOBA against right-handers and he has hit the ball hard a whopping 36.4-percent of the time. Over the last seven days, it has been more of the same from Gyorko as he has continued to swing a hot bat: .308/.333/.615 slash line, .380 wOBA and .308 ISO. Tonight, he and the Cardinals will square off against Asher Wojciechowski who has been absolutely demolished by RHHs in his young career: .376 wOBA, 3.27 HR/9 rate, .267/.298/.614 slash line, 39.4-percent hard hit rate, 60.6-percent fly ball rate and a 10.64 ERA. In other words, Gyorko finds himself in an elite spot and the new papa (just activated off paternity list) should be in line for a big performance in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.

Logan Forsythe, Dodgers, $6,900 – Since Logan Forsythe was activated off the disabled list a few weeks back, the Dodgers offense has ascended in a big way against LHP. While they spent a long stint in the gutter against southpaws, the offense has improved all the way to eighth in wOBA against the handedness and they are now slashing .255/.338/.450 in the split. As per usual, Forsythe is doing his thing against lefties this year to the tune of a .503 wOBA, .200 ISO, .440/.559/.640 slash line and 36.8-percent hard hit rate. In fact, all those numbers other than ISO and hard hit rate lead the team, and even his numbers in those categories rate towards the top. All of this is a long-winded way of saying opposing starter Gio Gonzalez will have his hands full with the Dodgers’ leadoff hitter. If his control as off, as it has been a lot this season (12.3-percent BB rate and 34.9-percent hard hit rate against RHHs), Forsythe is going to make him pay.

Outfield:

Dexter Fowler, Cardinals, $8,400 – One Cardinals hitter is simply not enough against Wojciechowski especially with the Cardinals being implied to score the second most runs on the slate (behind only the Braves). All Wojciechowski’s numbers are a limited sample size but he has yielded a career .409 wOBA, 12.3-percent BB rate, .316/.400/.571 slash line, 28.3-percent line drive rate and 52.2-percent fly ball rate to LHHs while only striking out 15.4-percent of them (13.1 inning sample size). Last year, Wojciechowski’s minor league numbers were not pretty either so these struggles are not exactly unexpected. Most will rush to roster Matt Carpenter, and rightfully so, but Fowler may be the safest investment of anyone not named Gyorko since he will leadoff and is therefore guaranteed to at least equal the team lead in plate appearances. More opportunity equals more potential for production…especially in a great power park against a gas can.

Odubel Herrera, Phillies, $5,700 – This price tag is “laugh out loud” hilarious considering the renaissance Odubel Herrera has enjoyed over the last two ballgames. Despite fighting through a down season to this point, Herrera has bounced back and mashed five extra-base hits in his last two games (four doubles and one bomb) while driving in six during that span. Suddenly, he looks more the 2016, beastly version of himself than the weak-hitting 2017 version. Once again on Monday, he draws a fantastic matchup, this time against Bartolo Colon and his .349 wOBA allowed to lefties this year. To round out the stat line, Colon has surrendered a 1.57 HR/9 rate, .284/.333/.487 slash line, 22.4-percent line drive rate, 34.7-percent hard hit rate and 40.8-percent fly ball rate to LHHs while only striking them out at a 14.7-percent clip. As icing on the cake, this game will be played in SunTrust Park which is proving to be one of the most hitter-friendly environments in the entire league. Lock in Herrera into all lineups at this outrageously affordable price tag.

Pitchers:

Sean Manaea, Athletics, $15,200 – With Josh Donaldson back in the mix for the Blue Jays, the matchup against them just became significantly tougher for opposing LHPs. Even with that being the case, the Blue Jays offense will need to fight through a significant negative park shift as they leave the Rogers Centre for pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. It feels like no one has talked much about Sean Manaea this season and yet he will head into this game sporting a 1.03 WHIP, 10.06 K/9 and 50.8-percent ground ball (GB) rate. Each of his last two times out, Manaea has topped 32 fantasy points, and neither of those matchups were remotely easy: Indians and Yankees (both on the road). If he can get it done versus those powerhouse offenses in hitter-friendly environments, he should at least have the potential to throw a solid game at this mid-tier price tag in the friendly confines of home. Vegas lists him as a -115 favorite in a game with just a projected 8.0 run over/under so they believe in him as well. Without many viable alternative, Manaea makes sense as both a cash game and tournament play.

Junior Guerra, Brewers, $15,200 – Speaking of pitchers who have pitched well recently, Junior Guerra has produced 17.15 and 21.30 fantasy points respectively in his two outings since being activated from the disabled list. In those games, he struck out a combined nine batters in 11.2 innings and has allowed just one earned run (ER). Now, Guerra will take on a Giants team at home that ranks dead last in wOBA amongst National League teams. Additionally, the Giants rank in the bottom 10 of wRC+, ISO, BB rate, AVG, OBP, SLG and hard hit rate. Admittedly, there is not much strikeout potential, but pitching a solid ballgame will do just fine at this bargain cost. Guerra has dominated LHHs throughout the course of his career (.266 wOBA) so he should be able to cruise through this lineup if he is in fact able to keep the lefties quiet.

J.A. Happ, Blue Jays, $14,400 – Choosing two pitchers from the same game? On this slate, it is a viable strategy because there are so few viable pitching options to choose from. Carlos Martinez is not worth spending up for at a ridiculous $24,300 price tag considering active Reds hitters have posted a career .283/.367/.513 slash line off him in 113 at-bats (ABs). Meanwhile, J.A. Happ will face a significantly better matchup on paper and will enjoy a positive park upgrade (unlike his team’s hitters). In 2017, the Athletics, rank in the bottom 10 of wOBA, wRC+, ISO, BB rate and OBP while striking out at the third highest rate (25.7-percent) against the handedness. The team struck out at team record 255 times in May and their roster has not changed since that time. On a fantasy-point-per-dollar basis, it would be shocked if Happ did not compete for the positional lead on this horrendous pitching slate. Note: he was on a pitch count last game so need an update on that front prior to first pitch in order to consider starting him.

*Stats are accurate as of Sunday, June 4

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

You may also like...

Leave a Reply