I Dream of Jean-ie

Jean Segura is amidst a 16-game hit streak and now draws a matchup with a pitcher who has allowed a .542 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Advantage: Segura. Check out daily fantasy expert Ricky Sanders’ recommended plays to help you fill out your roster for today’s MLB.

Infield:

Miguel Sano, Twins, $9,200 (Early) – Yesterday’s Rockies/Twins game was postponed due to weather so Miguel Sano will draw the exact same matchup on the early slate. Here is what was written in this very article about him yesterday: “Basically a month and a half into the season, Sano still handily leads the MLB in average exit velocity (99.0mph). Joc Pederson, who ranks second, has posted a 94.7mph average exit velocity so Sano leads the category by more than 4.0mph. Tonight, Sano and the Twins will square off against an opposing pitcher who has only missed right-handed bats at a 16.4-percent rate this year. Furthermore, righties have managed a .343 wOBA, 1.42 HR/9 and .240/.309/.520 slash line against Marquez so it is clear power hitters have done a fair amount of the damage. Since Sano has hit the ball hardest of anyone in the league, it is encouraging to see Marquez’s 22.0-percent line drive rate, 36.6-percent hard hit rate and 41.5-percent fly ball rate allowed to RHHs. As icing on the cake, Target Field plays as one of the most favorable power parks to RHHs as well so Sano is in a prime spot to get a hold of one and hit it out.” Once again, the weather is supposed to be iffy during the day, but worst comes to worst he can be used in the night slate because these two teams are slated to play a doubleheader.

Jean Segura, Mariners, $9,300 (Late) – Of all the pitchers scheduled to pitch on Thursday, only Nick Pivetta has allowed a higher wOBA to RHHs than opposing starter Dylan Covey. As a whole, righties have posted a .542 wOBA, 14.3-percent BB rate, 4.97 HR/9 rate, .415/.513/.797 slash line, 42.9-percent hard hit rate and 41.8-percent fly ball rate against Covey, so there are very few pitchers who have fared much worse against the right side of the plate. Despite the Mariners tossing a guy about to make his first Major League start, the team is listed as -170 home favorites. The reason is because Covey is such a gas can and the offense, led by leadoff hitter Jean Segura, should tee off. Only Nelson Cruz, who is a solid play as well, has produced a wOBA greater than Segura’s .394 against RHP this year amongst active Mariners hitters but no one on the team has topped his .361 AVG. Additionally, Segura has stolen five bases against the handedness and Omar Narvaez is a well below average throwing catcher. At just $9,300, Segura possesses five tool upside in a borderline elite matchup against a scrub.

Outfield:

Mookie Betts, Red Sox, $10,400 (Late) – Once upon a time, Sonny Gray was a big name pitcher and was destined to be an ace. Since that time, he has fallen off a cliff, and now has been mediocre for just about a season and a half. After allowing RHHs to slash .282/.356/.524 against him last year, Gray has allowed a .333/.371/.545 slash line to them so far this year to go along with a .392 wOBA, 11.4-percent K rate and 37.9-percent hard hit rate. Mookie Betts hardly strikes out as-is, but Gray barely misses right-handed bats, so there is no reason why he should not make contact multiple times in this matchup. When Betts connects with a pitch, it very often results in hard contact (37.3-percent) and in a fly ball (46.4-percent). In other words, it is not difficult to see the excellent correlation here between a top tier hitter who creates hard contact versus a right-hander who gives it up. While Betts is almost always worthy of consideration, he is bordering on must-play tonight.

Trea Turner, Nationals, $9,300 (Early) – No catcher has allowed more stolen bases this season than Francisco Cervelli and no pitcher has been stolen on more (11 steals against) than probable starter Tyler Glasnow. If Trea Turner is able to reach base, he should be running. The ace of getting on base should not exactly be an impossible task either considering righties have posted a .412 wOBA, 12.2-percent BB rate, 1.56 HR/9 rate, .306/.400/.571 slash line and 48.1-percent fly ball rate against Glasnow this year. It would be surprising for Turner to not reach the double-digit fantasy point plateau on Thursday evening.

Pitchers:

Tanner Roark, Nationals, $17,400 (Early) – Pitching on the early slate is like attempting to pick a non-diseased fish out of a poisoned water supply. All of the options feel like they possess very little upside for their respective price tags other than Tanner Roark. On Wednesday evening, Jacob Turner got hit around by the Pirates, but Roark is clearly a superior talent. In 25.0 IP against righties this year, Roark has pretty much shut them down: .240 wOBA, 22.2-percent K rate, zero home runs (HRs) allowed, .220/.286/.233 slash line, 27.5-percent hard hit rate and 59.7-percent ground ball (GB) rate. Both of the Pirates’ leaders in wOBA against RHP this year are right-handed and so are hitters like Josh Harrison, Jose Osuna, Francisco Cervelli and Andrew McCutchen as well. Against an offense that ranks just 29th in wOBA against the handedness, Roark stands out as the only pitcher worth trusting on the early slate. Literally everyone else is a crap shoot.

Jordan Montgomery, Yankees, $15,600 (Late) – Unlike the early slate, the late slate features some enticing pitching options beginning with Jordan Montgomery. Wind very likely could be an issue here, with winds gusting up to 20mph to center field, but this is the absolute best possible matchup a lefty could ask for. Not only do the Royals rank 29th in wOBA against LHP but they also rank in the bottom 10 of wRC+, ISO, BB rate, AVG, OBP, SLG and hard hit rate. As icing on the cake, they swing and miss at the fourth highest rate of any team and Montgomery currently sports a healthy 13.4-percent swinging strike rate. Montgomery sits at a friendly enough price point that he should compete for the lead at the position in terms of fantasy-points-per-dollar tonight…regardless of the wind.

Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays, $22,000 (Late) – Halfway through writing this article, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman tweeted it is feared Freddie Freeman broke his wrist when he was hit by a pitch on Wednesday night. Assuming this is the case, and Heyman is a very credible source, Marcus Stroman just emerged as the best pitching play on this entire slate. Stroman led the league in GB rate last year and the Braves only possess three other hitters besides Freeman with wOBAs above .318 against RHP this year: Matt Kemp (.419), Tyler Flowers (.416) and Nick Markakis (.354). If he can the limit the damage to those three, it should be smooth sailing.

*Stats are accurate as of Wednesday, May 17

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

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