PerdoMo Money, Mo Problems

Luis Perdomo is incredibly cheap tonight even though he has posted some elite ground ball numbers this year and has also barely allowed any hard contact at all. For his price, Perdomo is an absolute steal. Check out daily fantasy expert Ricky Sanders’ recommended plays to help you fill out your roster for today’s MLB.

Infield:

Corey Seager, Dodgers, $8,800 – Amongst active starting pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings to LHHs since the start of last season, Matt Cain has allowed the third highest wOBA (.385) behind only the likes of Shelby Miller (.394) and A.J. Griffin. During that span, lefties have slashed .313/.403/.493 and the Dodgers lineup is loaded with left-handers. Therefore, it is not surprising to see Dodgers active hitters sport a career .309/.360/.568 slash line against Cain in 81 total at-bats (ABs). Okay, so batter versus pitcher data (BvP) is far from the be all and end all but Corey Seager’s numbers against RHP confirm just how elite this matchup is: .403 wOBA, .222, .333/.398/.555 slash line and 42.1-percent hard hit rate in 573 ABs against the handedness. Since even the most expensive pitching options on this slate are affordable, fitting Seager into a lineup should be easy.

Kendrys Morales, Blue Jays, $7,200 – When Bartolo Colon steps on the mound, opposing hitters know fastballs are coming their way in droves and Kendrys Morales has rated as the team’s best fastball hitter over the last two seasons not named Josh Donaldson (who is currently injured). Also, Morales currently leads the team in both ISO (.231) hard hit rate (40.7-percent) against RHP this year plus he has launched a team-high six bombs against the handedness. LHHs have hit the ball in the air a whopping 48.5-percent of the time against Colon this season aka the highest mark of any pitcher on tonight’s slate. Surprisingly, Colon is not pounding the zone at nearly the same percentage as he has the past few seasons but he is also allowing a career-worst 38.5-percent hard hit rate overall. At this bargain price tag, take Morales all the way to the bank (and/or PayoutZone).

Outfield:

Mike Trout, Angels, $10,500 – The best hitter in the world is facing the worst pitcher of the slate so does there really need to be any more analysis? Okay, fine let’s trek on: Mike Pelfrey has allowed the highest wOBA to RHHs (4.02) this season of any pitcher scheduled to start tonight. IN fact, righties are slashing .345/.387/.552 against him with an absurd 37.0-percent line drive rate and he is only striking them out at a miniscule 6.5-percent. Pelfrey is not going to miss Mike Trout’s bat and he is most likely going to allow him to produce some hard contact so Trout, who is currently slashing .347/.438/.747 against the handedness, is easily the top hitting play on the board tonight. Pay up for him and sleep like a baby.

Cody Bellinger, Dodgers, $8,700 – One Dodgers hitter is simply not enough against a pitcher whose velocity is down nearly one full mph this season on his fastball and almost exactly two mph on both his slider and changeup. This partially explains why Cain’s strikeout rate is down 1.1 percentage points since last season but the guy is also throwing less strikes. After walking 8.1-percent of the hitters he faced last year, that number has ballooned all the way to 10.7-percent this season and that is not a winning combination by any means. Although it is a bit of a small sample size (46 ABs), Cody Bellinger’s .455 wOBA against RHP leads the Dodgers in 2017 as does his .435 ISO. To round out the stat line, Bellinger is slashing .304/.373/.739 with a 41.2-percent hard hit rate and 50.0-percent fly ball rate against righties. Despite the fact AT&T Park is not exactly hitter-friendly, it plays as an above average park in terms of triples, singles, AVG and OBP for LHHs, so there is no reason to overlook the Dodgers stack simply due to the stadium. All their lefty bats are phenomenal plays and the Seager/Bellinger duo stand out as the top two options of the bunch.

Pitcher:

Brandon McCarthy, Dodgers, $17,700 – Starting a pitcher in his first start off the disabled list always come with an inherent level of risk because the guy easily could be on some sort of pitch count. It is well within reason that Brandon McCarthy reaches 90 pitches and is pulled immediately regardless of game situation. The injury McCarthy suffered was no walk in the park either as he actually separated his shoulder so any sort of pain could also lead to him getting pulled. However, he threw 60 pitches pain-free in a simulated game prior to being cleared so this all could be overanalyzing the situation. Assuming he is 100-percent, or at least close to it, the matchup is pretty juicy; the Giants rank dead last in the National League in wOBA, wRC+, BB rate, OBP and line drive rate against RHP. Unfortunately, they do not strike out very often (19.6-percent rate), but the positive ballpark shift at least eases those concerns a bit. All things may need to go right for McCarthy to pitch deep into the game but he should at least be reasonably safe on a slate without any upper-echelon options.

Jesse Chavez, Angels, $15,000 – If looking for more upside, Jesse Chavez is a pitcher who quietly has pitched at least 6.0 innings in five of his last six starts and the one outlier was a 15.15 fantasy point, 5.2 IP game last time out. Out of seven total starts, Chavez has only failed to reach 12.65 fantasy points twice and now he will face the dream matchup against a White Sox team that ranks dead last in the league in wOBA against RHP. To be fair, they have started to hit lately, and moving Leury Garcia to the leadoff spot should only help their cause (as he is swinging a hot bat). Angels Stadium is a negative park shift for all the White Sox hitters who already have cumulatively hit the fewest home runs (HRs) against RHP. If Chavez, who has allowed 2.08 HR/9 to RHHs this season, is able to contain the White Sox in the yard, he should be able to throw a gem. As icing on the cake, Vegas is listing him as a -170 home favorite, so start him with confidence in all formats.

Luis Perdomo, Padres, $13,200 – Perdomo Arigato, Mr. Roboto; this Padres starter is quietly morphing into a stud. No active starting pitcher (min. 20 IP) in baseball has forced opposing hitters into a higher ground ball (GB) rate than Perdomo (69.5-percent) this season and his 0.32 HR/9 rate allowed ranks as the seventh lowest. Oh by the way, Perdomo has only surrendered hard contact at a 20.7-percent rate and line drives at a 14.6-percent rate so a ton of his numbers are those of a true ace. His one glaring weakness this season has been LHHs who have produced a .456 wOBA against him and a .409/.480/.591 slash line…but he has still forced them into a 60.0-percent GB rate. Assuming Travis Shaw, who left last night’s game with a hand injury, is out, Perdomo will only have to deal with Eric Thames and Jonathan Villar as the noteworthy lefties in the Brewers lineup. While the prospect of having to face Thames 2-4 times is scary, at least he will do so in one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in the league. By rostering Perdomo, one can build a pretty impressive lineup of hitters alongside him, so there are many reasons to consider taking the shot on him tonight.

*Stats are accurate as of Sunday, April 14

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

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