Abreu-La-La

Jose Abreu will face a pure fly balling lefty in a park conducive to power so the White Sox first baseman should be deployed in any and all formats tonight. Check out daily fantasy expert Ricky Sanders’ recommended plays to help you fill out your roster for today’s MLB.

Infield:

Trea Turner, Nationals, $10,200 – On paper, the matchup against Ubaldo Jimenez is actually more favorable to LHHs as they have produced a .387 wOBA off him this season compared to .346 for RHHs. Having said that, he is only striking out righties at a 9.2-percent rate while walking them at a 13.9-percent rate and they are slashing .268/.369/.418 with a 34.0-percent hard hit rate. Why would Trea Turner’s matchup jump off the page other than the reasonably high OBP allowed? Well, Jimenez allowed 26 stolen bases last season (fourth most) despite only pitching 142.1 IP after allowing 22 steals in 2015. Already this season, opponents have stolen six bases on Jimenez as he does an incredibly poor job holding runners. With the Nationals implied to score 4.8 runs, Turner has the potential to hit the ball hard multiple times, score multiple runs and even score multiple bases. Despite the hefty price tag, Turner is worth the cost in cash games.

Jose Abreu, White Sox, $8,700 – Happy Jose Abreu day in daily fantasy baseball. This is a dream matchup for the White Sox slugger as he will take on a pure fly baller in a home park that is extremely power-friendly. Heading into Tuesday, Abreu has hit safely in 11 of his last 13 games and he has homered in three of his last five games. To this point, Avisail Garcia (also a fine play) leads the team in wOBA against LHP but Abreu is not far behind at .416. The thing to like about Abreu is his 34.8-percent hard hit rate against LHP because he is facing a pitcher, Hector Santiago, that is allowing hard contact at a 33.3-percent rate to RHHs so far. Although Santiago has unquestionably pitched well to this point, he inevitably is going to struggle when he is allowing a ridiculous 50.5-percent fly ball rate to RHHs. Additionally, Santiago is only missing right-handed bats at a 17.2-percent rate so contact is inevitable here. If Abreu happens to run into a pitch, it is going to travel a long way.

Outfield:

Charlie Blackmon, Rockies, $10,800 – Who cares what Charlie Blackmon costs at this point because the man is above and beyond the safest cash game play in the league when playing in Coors Field. As noted in the article yesterday, Blackmon’s numbers at home are just absurd this season: .424/.458/.939 slash line, .515 ISO and .568 wOBA. Against right-handers specifically at home, Blackmon has slashed an otherworldly .459/.500/.973 with a .514 ISO and .594 wOBA. When playing at home, Blackmon is simply an elite play every single time out and John Lackey should not be expected to slow him down. So far this season, Lackey is allowing a 2.04 HR/9 rate to LHHs to go along with a 30.4-percent hard hit rate and 37-percent fly ball rate. All signs point to another solid performance from one of the most consistent producers in the game.

Aaron Judge, Yankees, $8,800 – Even on no sleep, the Yankees’ offense kept on chugging along on Monday evening with 10 more runs. Now, on Tuesday, the team will square off against another mediocre pitcher: Tim Adleman. To be fair, Adleman has done a solid job missing bats this year (12.4-percent swinging strike rate and 8.44 K/9) but he is allowing a ton of hard contact (41.9-percent hard contact rate) which has led to a 2.11 HR/9 rate. The ballpark does not hold many hard hit balls in the yard, meaning an Aaron Judge hard hit ball should easily leave the yard. Of all pitchers on tonight’s slate, Adelman’s .364 wOBA allowed to RHHs in 2017 ranks seventh highest and the Yankees rank as the top offense against RHP in terms of wOBA. Adelman should be in for a long (or short) night dealing with these Yankees bats and he should have an especially difficult time with the MLB’s leader in home runs (HRs). Judge stands out as one of the best tournament plays on the entire slate but he can be rostered in cash games as well.

Pitcher:

Carlos Carrasco, Indians, $20,700 – Deciding whether Max Scherzer is a fade or not is going to be a difficult decision because he can dominate any team when he has his best stuff. However, Carlos Carrasco draws a superior matchup to Scherzer and he is priced more than $2,000 cheaper. Even though he is pitching on the road, Vegas lists Carrasco as a -164 road favorite against Mike Bolsinger and the Blue Jays. This weekend, Josh Donaldson was supposedly targeting this homestand to return to the lineup but he once again has no timetable for his return so the team will continue to truck on without him. This quite obviously bodes well for opposing pitchers as the best hitter in the lineup will continue to be absent. Sans Donaldson, the Blue Jays rank 29th in wOBA, 28th in wRC+ and in the bottom 10 of ISO, BB rate, OBP, SLG, hard hit rate and line drive rate while striking out at the 10th highest rate against RHP. If looking for a reliable source of strikeouts and innings pitched, it does not get much safer than Carrasco on this slate.

Julio Urias, Dodgers, $15,600 – Speaking of safe, Julio Urias is the definition of “lights out” despite the fact he has yet to throw more than 90 pitches in a start this year. The Pirates are without both Starling Marte and David Freese, two of their better hitters against left-handers, and yet their remaining bunch cumulatively has still posted solid numbers against the handedness; they rank in the top 10 of wOBA, ISO, BB rate and SLG while only striking out at a 19.5-percent rate. Guys like Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen and Jose Osuna have posted solid numbers against southpaws (all over .390 wOBAs) and are difficult to retire. Still, Urias possesses some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in the league and Alex Wood struck out six through his first three innings last night. In other words, this Pirates team is still very beatable and Urias is listed as the second heaviest favorite of the night. As long as Urias limits baserunners, he should be incredibly efficient with his 90 or so pitches.

Charlie Morton, Astros, $15,200 – Surprisingly, the only man listed as a heavier favorite than Urias is none other than Charlie Morton. Amazingly, only 12 pitchers have struck out more batters per nine innings than Morton and only five American League pitchers have posted a lower FIP. According to FanGraphs, Morton’s two seem fastball rated as the third best pitch in baseball just a season ago and it is continuing to perplex opposing hitters so far this year as well. Morton will toe the mound against Bartolo Colon and the Braves; a team filled whose best hitters (other than Matt Kemp) are all left-handed. Poor LHHs have had no chance against Morton this season as they have posted a measly .232 wOBA against him with zero home runs and a 36.8-percent K rate. While Freddie Freeman is never a guarantee to get shut down, this is a fantastic matchup for Morton overall, and he should compete for the lead in terms of fantasy-points-per-dollar at the position tonight.

*Stats are accurate as of Monday, April 8

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

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