Roll out the Red Carp-et

Matt Carpenter, a career righty killer, has dominated Wily Peralta over the course of his career and Peralta continues to struggle against left-handed hitters. Advantage: Carpenter. Check out daily fantasy expert Ricky Sanders’ recommended plays to help you fill out your roster for today’s MLB.

Infield:

Matt Carpenter, Cardinals, $8,100 – In a limited sample size this season, opposing starter Wily Peralta has had an extremely difficult time retiring LHHs. Over the course of 10.1 innings, lefties have slashed .341/.408/.628 against him with a .428 wOBA and 36.1-percent hard hit rate. Last year, lefties smashed him nearly as hard: .298/.366/.515 slash line and .374 wOBA and a whopping 25.0-percent line drive rate. After striking lefties out at a very mediocre 14.0-percent in 2016, Peralta is only striking them out at a slightly higher rate (16.3-percent) this year. When sample sizes extend on Peralta, he typically morphs into a gas can over time and his numbers look similarly gas can-ish to last season. Meanwhile, Matt Carpenter has posted a .363 wOBA against RHP in 54 at-bats (ABs) this season and he leads the active Cardinals in career wOBA against the handedness. All signs point to a monstrous game for Carpenter who by the way is 20-43 (.465) against Peralta in his career with 15 batted ball events with an average exit velocity of 97.5mph. Start him.

Miguel Sano, Twins, $8,000 – Speaking of exit velocity, Miguel Sano’s 99.3mph average leads all the majors by a large margin and he will take on a pitcher who posted extreme reverse splits last year. Yes, Sonny Gray will be activated to start Tuesday’s matchup against the Twins in Minnesota; a park that plays favorably to right-handed power. It will be interesting to see which version of Gray shows up: the 2015 ace-like version or the 2016 unremarkable one. Vegas is implying 4.7 runs for this Twins offense so they are leaning towards the latter and that only means good news for Sano. Gray only struck out RHHs at a 17.2-percent rate last year and surrendered 12 bombs, a .282/.356/.524 slash line, .372 wOBA and a 38.6-percent hard hit rate against the right side of the plate. No one hits the ball harder than Sano so it could be blastoff if Gray is not drastically improved (and it is hard to expect that in just his first game back from a lat strain).

Outfield:

Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox, $7,800 – The book is limited on Alec Asher, as he is only 25 years old and this is only his third year in the big leagues, but so far left-handers have enjoyed substantial success against him. In 34.0 innings against lefties as a professional, Asher has allowed a .277/.327/.471 slash line, .341 wOBA and a hefty 45.8-percent fly ball rate. Over the course of the last week, Andrew Benintendi has launched two of his three homers this year and he now ranks second on the team in wOBA against RHP this season (behind only Christian Vazquez). The price tag does not match the skill set as Benintendi is a five-tool player who is going to emerge as one of the better players in the league sooner rather than later. Factor in the elite hitting ballpark and slate-high 5.6 implied run total and it is easy to see why Benintendi should be in all your lineups on this slate.

Aaron Judge, Yankees, $7,600 – Anytime Mat Latos toes the mound, fantasy owners need to take notice because he has seen better days. In his current form, he is nothing more than a subpar pitcher and in Yankee Stadium he could prove to be a catastrophe. Following a season where Latos allowed a .356 wOBA to righties, they are lighting him up once again to the tune of a .330 wOBA and 34.6-percent hard hit rate. In an extremely hitter-friendly environment, Judge, who ranks fourth in baseball with a 94.9mph average exit velocity, should be in a prime spot to produce some power. To this point, Judge’s .425 wOBA against RHP ranks 30th amongst all hitters with at least 20 at-bats (ABs) versus the handedness and his power is unmatched in the league maybe other than the aforementioned Sano. Homers will be needed to win on this monstrous 15 game slate and Judge is one of the likeliest candidates to go deep.

Pitcher:

Chris Sale, Red Sox, $24,300 – Has there been a better starting pitcher than Chris Sale this year? Amongst qualified pitchers, only Noah Syndergaard has posted a superior FIP and only Danny Salazar/Jacob deGrom have struck out more batters per nine innings than Sale’s 12.42. If Cy Young voting happened today, the MLB leader in xFIP would run away with the award. Tonight, Sale will draw a matchup against the Orioles at home and they are not nearly as potent against LHP. Other than striking out at a whopping 26.4-percent rate against southpaws, the Orioles also rank in the bottom 10 of BB rate and rank below the league average in terms of wOBA, wRC+ and even ISO. Despite the favorable hitting environment, Sale should dominate this team like just about every other opponent he has faced as of late.

James Paxton, Mariners, $17,600 – James Paxton is an ace and those who are starting to figure that out are making money habitually. Even against an Angels team that is difficult to strike out (16.7-percent K rate), Paxton still stands out as a solid option at home in pitcher-friendly as a -148 favorite against Matt Shoemaker. Not only do the Angels rank in the bottom 10 of ISO but they also rank in the bottom 10 of hard hit rate against LHP as well. Other than Martin Maldonado (.468 wOBA), Mike Trout (.417 wOBA) and Yunel Escobar (.379 wOBA), no other hitter on the team has posted a wOBA greater than .312 against lefties so far this year. Just to outline how excellent Paxton has been, he has allowed zero homers, is striking out 10.86 batters per nine innings and will head into this game with a 1.17 FIP. Whenever an ace is roster-able at a sub-$18,000 cost, take the discount all the way to the bank.

Alex Wood, Dodgers, $15,200 – Last night, the Giants hit Clayton Kershaw a little bit but that can be chalked up to volatility because this Giants lineup is not incredibly potent against lefties. The team ranks in the bottom 10 of wOBA, wRC+, ISO, BB rate, AVG, OBP and hard hit rate and Wood dominated them just six days ago. In meeting number two in a short period, the advantage goes to the hitters since they have seen the entire arsenal but that is still worth overlooking in this case. Other than Buster Posey, no other player on the team has produced a wOBA greater than .352 against LHP and only three total have exceeded .326. This is not a good offense and not a favorable hitting environment so Wood should still prove to be a solid fantasy-point-per-dollar investment. By rostering Wood, you can fit just about any hitter you want, and there are plenty to choose from on a 15-game slate.

*Stats are accurate as of Monday, April 1

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

You may also like...

Leave a Reply