MLB Stacks: April 27

If you’re familiar with MLB DFS, then you know that scoring and fantasy production among any one team are highly correlated, so in order to maximize the upside of your lineups, it’s beneficial to stack batters of teams that are in good spots or that you believe will pop off. Since the majority of your lineup’s scoring usually comes from the batters, the key to those big scores and taking down a GPP is hitting on your stack or stacks of choice. This article is designed to help you do that, and in it I will highlight the top 2 overall stacks of the day, a value stack that is under-priced for the matchup and expected production, and also a HULO (High Upside, Low Ownership) stack that should go under-owned on the slate but has the potential to explode.

It’s only a four-game slate tonight, and with the high-priced Chris Sale ($25,200) being the clear #1 SP and the Diamondbacks being the clear-cut top stack, you’re going to have to find some ways to differentiate tonight! Here are some stacks to help do so!

Top Stacks

Arizona (vs San Diego) – Opposing Pitcher – Jered Weaver (RHP)

I know – I’m not going out on any limbs here by recommending Arizona. The Diamondbacks have the highest implied total on the slate right now at 6 runs, and they get to face everyone’s favorite punching bag, Jered Weaver, who at this point in his career would be a serviceable beer-league softball pitcher and that’s about it. There’s no doubt that these guys are the top stack of the night, but they will also be massively owned and are expensive, so if you do take them you’ll need to get different or take some chances elsewhere.

The top five hitters in the lineup are the preferred stack, although all hitters 1-8 are in play tonight.  This means AJ Pollock ($9200), David Peralta ($7600) Paul Goldschmidt ($10800), Jake Lamb ($9000) and Yasmany Tomas ($8700) are all phenomenal plays tonight. They all hit RHP very well, and while their individual stats have been noted in here recently ad nauseum, they also face Jered freaking Weaver.

My recommendation here for GPPS is either a full-on stack of 4 or 5, or a full fade and take Sale. You’ll have to decide if you want Sale or D-Backs tonight it seems. FWIW, Weaver has decreased his batted ball distance allowed on the year. But if you do stack Arizona, you’ll need some value plays to fill in the rest.

 

St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Toronto) – Opposing Pitcher – Casey Lawrence (RHP)

The Cards and Blue Jays have a twin bill today, so this will be game 2 between them on the day. In the night game, the Cards are implied for 5 runs and face rookie Casey Lawrence, who will be making his second start on the year.

No surprises here, but the top of the order 1-5 is where you should be looking to take hitters from St. Louis. That would be Dexter Fowler ($8000), Aledmys Diaz ($7600), Matt Carpenter ($8000), Jedd Gyorko (vastly under-priced still at $6900) and Stephen Piscotty ($7800). Diaz, Carpenter and Gyorko all have positive splits against RHP, Fowler is a veteran hitter who shouldn’t be fooled by seeing a new pitcher and provides stolen base upside, and Stephen Piscotty has been putting the barrel on the ball in his at bats recently, and while the results have not quite been there yet, it’s only a matter of time until they do. All 5 of these guys have been hitting the ball hard and far recently too, and if the rookie Lawrence makes any mistake with a pitch, every one of them has the talent to make him pay.

I think the Cardinals provide a phenomenal pivot off the chalky D-Backs stack with almost as much upside and will come with a price and ownership discount.

Value Stack

Oakland Athletics (@ Los Angeles Angels) – Opposing Pitcher – Ricky Nolasco (RHP)

Luckily for us, we do have a team full of guys hitting the ball well that won’t cost you an arm and a leg to roster! That team is the Oakland A’s, who are currently implied for 4.2 runs as they face off against Ricky Nolasco and the LAA Angels. Nolasco is a fly-ball pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate, which meshes well with the fly-ball hitting bats you should target from the A’s lineup.

Every hitter on the A’s is relatively low-priced tonight, and I think a lot of people will grab the Dbacks and fill in the rest with the min- or near min-priced guys from the A’s (Decker, Joyce). While those 2 are viable options, especially for the price, they aren’t my favorite bats from Oakland. That would be Jed Lowrie ($6000), Khris Davis ($7200), Yonder Alonso ($5600) and Trevor Plouffe ($6600). While we already know that Khris Davis is an equal opportunity masher, I like the rest because they all have increased their batted ball distance, HH%, exit velocity and FB & LD% recently, which again is going to come into play against Nolasco tonight. Alonso especially seems like the deal of the night at only $5600, as he is on the positive side of his splits, and over the last 15 days has a ridiculous 251-ft average batted ball distance while increasing his exit velo 3mph and hitting fly balls at a clip over 50%!

I like an A’s stack to help you get Sale and some other big boppers, or to make an Arizona stack still fit as well. It may be a popular move, but leaving out guys like Decker and Joyce should help differentiate, and I think the 4 listed are better plays anyway.

HULO Stack

San Diego Padres (@ Arizona) – Opposing Pitcher – Tajuan Walker (RHP)

While everyone will be all over Arizona, there is another team playing in the same ballpark under the same conditions, and while they may not have the supreme luxury of facing Jered Weaver, a matchup vs Tajuan Walker isn’t the worst thing that could happen to them. The Padres are implied for 4.6 currently, which is third-highest on the night, and while normally that would garner lots of ownership, especially on a small slate, I think that so many people will flock to Arizona that the Padres ownership will stay relatively low. While Tajuan Walker has a high BABIP right now that may see some positive regression soon, I don’t think it will be as drastic as some would expect. This is due to allowing a hard hit % of 34% – well above league average – and an increased exit velocity and batted ball distance. While it’s not quite Coors, Chase Field is still very much a hitter’s park, and hard hit balls will still carry, giving the Padres some real upside tonight (and of course the risk that comes with rostering Padres anyway).

For the reasons listed above, you should be looking at Padres who have been hitting the ball well recently, increasing their HH% and exit velocity, or just have the raw power to crank one and are on the positive side of their splits. Specifically, that means Manuel Margot ($7500),Wil Myers ($9900), Yangervis Solarte ($7600) and Ryan Schimpf ($8000).  While 4 Padres may be too aggressive even for me, taking 3 of these 4 gives you plenty of upside at minimal ownership. At his price, Wil Myers will be especially low-owned, providing us with a great pivot off Goldschmidt while still giving you double-dong upside.

Being implied for 4.6 runs means production should come from somewhere, and I expect it to be from the guys listed, so even if they can come close to the production of the Arizona chalk, a combination of Padres and some of the guys I’ve listed above  will give you differentiation AND room to roster Sale.

 

Good Luck!

 

 

Evan Burgmeier

Evan Burgmeier

Evan Burgmeier (@BurgsTheWord1) is the Podcast Host and MLB analyst for DFSDatalytics.com and DFSDash.com

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