Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview


Course: Bay Hill Club, Orlando, FL
Yardage/Par: Par 72, 7,419 Yards
Scoring Expectation: Medium. Bay Hill is a bit weather-dependent, but overall it’s a fair test of golf that has a reasonable amount of trouble, but can be
Greens: Bermuda
Weather: Looks pretty much perfect – temperatures in the 70s and low breezes from 5-10 mph until the weekend.  Either way, it will be sunny and should provide ideal scoring conditions.



Once again, FantasyDraft clearly outclasses DK by creating pricing that, you know, actually challenges you to have to make some tough decisions and sacrifices so that you don’t have to rely as much on hoping and praying that your particular stud-laden lineup doesn’t unexpectedly bust.  I was able to easily cash last week on FD with 4/6, and that’s the way it should be!

Bay Hill presents a fair but accessible test of golf.  Unlike Copperhead last week, Bay Hill has minimal tree trouble and substantially wider fairways.  However, it also boasts some rather large Par 4s, very long Par 3s, and a fair amount of bunker and water trouble to boot.  Therefore, the cut line rarely ends up being higher than E, although it did get to -2 in 2015, so with calm conditions, that’s entirely possible this year.

Your ideal golfers this week are going to be those who don’t have to spend a whole lot of time trying to make par from off the green.  On any course where the weather is calm and the winner is likely to be well into the double digits, golfers who are hitting less than 60% of greens are going to be behind the scoring curve, so while scrambling won’t hurt here, it’s more imperative to have more numerous and better looks at birdie.


Kevin Na ($17,300) 

Assuming Kevin Na is fully over his Mexico City issues, few golfers boast the value and upside that Na does on a weekly basis, particularly at the API where he has successfully finished inside the top 15 in five of his last six appearances at this event.  He’s an excellent rebound play at an affordable price on FantasyDraft.

Charles Howell III ($17,000) 

This isn’t quite the absurd discount we’re seeing on DK, but $17K is a very fair price for the king of consistency who has missed exactly two cuts in sixteen appearances at this event.  Disregard his poor weekend at the Valspar – he’s still the boss and one of the best cut-makers with upside in the game.

J.J. Spaun ($15,200) 

Copperhead wasn’t a great fit for Mr. Spaun, but Bay Hill almost definitely is.  Let the field make the mistake of doubting him.  He’s been playing fantastic golf virtually everywhere he goes, and he’s got the full toolkit to get the job done at a spot like Bay Hill.

Stewart Cink ($14,900) 

Boring Stewart Cink provides one of the better salary relief options this week with about as much consistency as anyone in terms of cut-making with reasonable upside.  He’s not flashy, but he tends to pile up the GIRs, and that’s all you need to need to stay in the conversation here when you’re in good form.


Good luck in your contests this week, stay disciplined, and trust your process!

Roger Casey

Roger Casey

He was the winner of the 2015-2016 Toughest $5 in Golf, a weekly 50/50 competition among industry analysts, successfully cashing in over 80% of contests offered. Roger resides in North Carolina and is a graduate of the University of Virginia with degrees in Marketing, Management, and Entrepreneurship. Feel free to reach out to him on Twitter at @DRogerCasey if you’re interested in learning more about FireDFS or just to shoot the breeze! If you’re reading this article, you can use the coupon code FDFIVE to get $5 off the FireDFS PGA Monthly Subscription!

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