Welcome back to another edition of Seeking Value in the FantasyDraft Locker Room. There are eight games on tonight’s slate, and there is plenty of action to go around, which should help us uncover some pretty nice value options.
Last time we talked, we had two value plays turn out nicely [Rodney Hood and C.J. Miles] and two that just didn’t [Nemanja Bjelica and Jordan Crawford]. You’ll have that when you are swimming in the seas of bargain plays. I’m going to throw out two guards and two forward/centers to help you round out your lineups tonight, let’s get on to my four favorites.
Jeremy Lin – PG – Brooklyn Nets – $9,800
It’s good to see that Jeremy Lin is finally been moving toward healthy. It’s been a long season for him, but it’s likely lowered his value in redraft leagues for the 2017-18 season. That’s not what we are here to talk about though. It’s all about tonight.
Sure, the matchup on paper isn’t exactly great. This is a big pace down game for the Nets, but they should still make the game in total faster than the league average. We know that Brook Lopez is already out tonight, so I think more of the scoring load is going to fall on Lin’s shoulders. He looked very good against the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday, and I think he should be in a good spot tonight.
The best part is the minutes. He’s only seeing 25-27 a game because Kenny Atkinson must make sure everyone sees the floor. It’s important to him to keep his team well rested for the post-season. The reason I bring up the minutes is that I think he’ll see them regardless of the outcome of the game. That safety for someone at this price, who is a good enough player with increased usage puts him on the radar.
Kelly Olynyk – C –Boston Celtics – $7,800
The Celtics will stay on their road trip tonight as they visit a sick Denver Nuggets team. As it exists right now, it appears as if Nikola Jokic is unlikely to play, and Danilo Gallinari is still on the questionable side. After a pretty good start to the year, Al Horford seems to have hit a wall. He’s struggling basically in all facets of the game. When that happens, we tend to see more lineups featuring Olynyk.
With Jokic out, the Nuggets shift down to a much smaller team that features Mason Plumlee and Wilson Chandler in the front court. That leaves a lot of size out there, but does play better into the hands of Olynyk than Horford.
Olynyk is by no means a safe option. He’ll come around for a few games and then disappear. The benefit with him is that when he is putting together big games, they are usually in the 30’s. I’m 100% willing to pay for a guy who has 30 FantasyDraft point upside in a favorable matchup to his skill set and is only $7,800. I won’t be using him in cash games, but he makes a nice tournament option.
Joffrey Lauvergne – C – Chicago Bulls – $6,000
I will admit that I love to play risky sometimes. I will also admit that sometimes my risky plays can tend to look stupid after the night is over. I’ll take that because the times they are not stupid, they will me a lot of money.
The Chicago bench rotation is laughable. There is no one who is really seeing consistent run that is a worthwhile fantasy option. Fred Hoiberg does not like Nikola Mirotic, indicating that he might not be using him in the rotations moving forward. This opens the door for King Joffrey.
If you’ve been playing NBA DFS for a while, you’ll know that Lauvergne put together some decent games with both Oklahoma City and Denver. He was by no means consistent, but his skill set could be useful tonight against a fast-paced Rockets team.
He needs less than 20 FantasyDraft points to hit value, something he could certainly be capable of. He’s also the kind of play where if he is just entering the rotation, we could see him get minutes if the game is close or a blowout. Don’t go overboard on him, and maybe even sit this one out if you have a low risk tolerance. You might be kicking yourself, though, if his inclusion in the rotation is real and he does come up with 20+ tonight.
Jamal Murray – SG – Denver Nuggets- $7,800
Do you believe coaches when they say they are going to play someone more? If you do, now might be a great time to buy low on Jamal Murray. I’m torn on whether I want to believe it or not. On one hand, he’s the future for Denver at the position, so why would they wait to use him and develop him so he can be ready for a 30+ minute per game run next year? On the other hand, this team is still competing for a playoff spot, and it doesn’t exactly make sense to pivot during a run.
I am going to side with thinking that Murray will start to see his floor time creep up. One thing we know about Boston, especially at the point guard position, is that they are leaky. Isaiah Thomas is a horribly negative defender, and Murray could see a great opportunity tonight. At his price, and the fact that I don’t think he’ll see a ton of ownership, I really like going with him in tournaments. He can really pay off in a big way.
I hope you enjoyed today’s value plays. You can find more NBA content, including projections, over at ResearchFantasy.