DraftCheat’s NBA Thoughts: March 8

Today “Thoughts’ returns to FantasyDraft  where we try to identify three players who have a great shot to reach or exceed 3x their salary-based value on FantasyDraft. For a player priced at the minimum of $6,000, that means we are looking for 18+ fantasy points, for a player priced at $10,000, 30 Fantasy Points, You get the idea so let’s move on to the picks.

 

Reggie Jackson, $10,100

I take little pleasure in recommending Reggie Jackson to my loyal readers. Pistons Coach Stan Van Gundy clearly does not particularly like Jackson’s play, and a loss of minutes due to in-game benching is always in play with Reggie. But, that possibility is priced into his salary at this point, and Jackson needs just 30 FantasyDraft points to reach value. Jackson has found more success against the Pacers this year, tonight’s opponent, than he has against just about any other team in the NBA. In three games vs. the Pacers, Jackson has averaged 29 minutes and 37 FantasyDraft points per game, and it has not been simply due to hot shooting or fluky steals or blocks. Jackson is shooting just 39% in those three games, but he’s getting to the line and dishing out assists. It makes perfect sense, given the individual match-up. No player in the entire league has given up more points per game as the defender of a pick and roll ball handler than Jeff Teague, which is by far Jackson’s preferred mode of attack. Teams are targeting Teague very frequently in the pick and roll and he is not performing well. There is always risk with Reggie Jackson, but also a lot of upside at this price point.

 

Jrue Holiday, $12,700

There are still a lot of moving parts in New Orleans with the addition of DeMarcus Cousins, and this offense is still figuring things out. Holiday has generally played well lately, though he was benched last game against the Jazz, playing just 23 minutes as the Pelicans offense sputtered out playing their third game in four nights. Back at home and in a great match-up against Cory Joseph, who is very much struggling defending the pick and roll this season, Holiday should get back on track. The Pelicans remain very thin in the back court, and if Holiday is able to find his groove in this game (which he should be able to, given the match-up), he should see big minutes. Holiday should also benefit from playing at home in this one, as he’s averaging nearly 5 more fantasy points per game at home, largely due to the difference in his three point shooting efficiency. Holiday is shooting 41% from downtown at home and just 33% on the road. That might not be sustainable, but he also benefits from the home cooking official scoring of the Pelicans, as he’s also been better in the assist department when playing at the Smoothie King Center.

 

Gorgui Dieng, $10,200

This pick will hopefully fly under the radar and is therefore best suited for GPPs, but Dieng should be in for big minutes against the Clippers big front court of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. He’s lost minutes at times recently to Nemanja Bjelica, but the Timberwolves will need Dieng’s size and rebounding in this match-up. Dieng also lives in the mid-range as a scorer, and the Clippers give up among the most mid-range 2-point shots of any team in the league. This is a great spot for Deing to exceed 30 fantasy points at a lower ownership rate.

 

Good luck out there tonight! ~ DraftCheat

Peter Christiansen

Peter Christiansen

Peter Christensen (aka DraftCheat) has been playing DFS full time since 2014. He’s a multiple time Live Finalist in MLB, NFL, NBA, and CFB, and took home the FanDuel Playboy College Football Championship for $100,000 in 2015. An analytically based player and unapologetic member of #TeamMath, DraftCheat prefers the GPP style of play and is a huge proponent of using Game Theory to improve results. A lifelong Minnesota resident, he grows weary of cheering on his hapless hometown teams. You can find his work on www.FanVice.com for both articles as well as the Deeper Dive live video show airing regularly at 5pm ET or on Twitter @DraftCheat.

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