Welcome back to another edition of Seeking Value in the FantasyDraft Locker Room. There are six games on tonight’s slate, and there is plenty of action to go around, which should help us uncover some pretty nice value options.
Last night was a real crash and burn situation, with many players not coming through and a key injury [Michael Beasley] that took a popular play out of action. Here’s to hoping that doesn’t happen tonight.
I like the value options much better tonight, and I think you will too, with all that said, let’s get on to my four favorites.
Nikola Mirotic – PF – Chicago Bulls – $9,800
I was sure once Taj Gibson was traded that it was signaling that Bobby Portis was going to be a major focus of this team. After all, prior to the deal, he was seeing more floor time and producing well. Nikola Mirotic was coming off an injury and not being played. It was easy to see that Portis was the guy to have. Whether in season long leagues or DFS, it appeared that was the way to go.
Two games into the “New Bulls’ era, and Portis hasn’t seen over 20 minutes in either game. Mirotic, on the other hand, has put together two strong performances in a row that really hasn’t seen his price move too drastically.
The Nuggets, the Bulls opposition tonight, are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and seem to have a deficiency lately at defending just about all facets of the game. This should give Mirotic enough opportunity to hit his three-point shot and rack up those points even quicker.
I am putting a range for him between 25-30 FantasyDraft points tonight, but he certainly has the upside to go into the early 40’s. That is exactly what makes a great value play.
Rodney Hood – SG – Utah Jazz – $8,000
It won’t be often that you see Rodney Hood show up in anything I ever work on. I just don’t really like what he brings to the table, and is the fourth wheel in this Utah offense. The reason he is on this list is that for tournaments, I could see him coming through with 25 fantasy points against an Oklahoma City team that plays fast and furious basketball. He was having a pretty nice game against the Wizards on Monday night, putting up 23.75 points in just 26 minutes.
The only real downside to him is that he is coming off an injury, but he did see his court time increase last game. I think in a game where they will need his shooting to win, he could see that increase again to around 30.
He needs just 24 FantasyDraft points to make 3x value tonight, and I think this is a perfect recipe for that to happen. I suspect his ownership will likely stay pretty low, and if he comes through with another game over 30 points, he’ll make elite value for you tonight.
Marco Belinelli – SG – Charlotte Hornets – $6,700
Belinelli certainly falls into the category of a tournament only option. All you need to do is take once glance through his game log to really see that. I’ll save you the time. Here is a sample of his fantasy output in recent games from most recent: 7.5/27/14.5/5.25/22/26/15.5/23.25. Yeah, that’ll inspire confidence in using him tonight.
What I see though is that he ends up exceeding value in roughly over half his games. As far as matchup goes, it doesn’t really get much better than the Lakers. The benefit here is that the Hornets have been bad defensively themselves, allowing teams stay deep into games with them. Normally, Belinelli is seeing between 22-25 minutes, unless his shot isn’t falling which will get him pulled sooner than that.
I’m confident that on tonight’s slate, he should be able to see those minutes in the mid-20’s and I think it’s not out of line to expect about a point per minute in output.
Alex Len – C – Phoenix Suns – $7,800
Len is a really interesting option tonight. Phoenix seems to be focusing on their youth movement right now, which has resulted in Tyson Chandler sitting on the bench the entirety of the last two games. The price on Len is great. If you’ve been playing daily fantasy for a while, you’ll know that Len has put up some games in the 40’s and 50’s in years past, but has just not been given the opportunity too much this season.
The match-up is tough, as the Suns are going to be taking on the Memphis Grizzlies. I am convinced that Marc Gasol is going to be able to eat this front-court alive. Even with that being said, I think Len could be in a good enough position to come through with 20-25 points. I really don’t see that being something that would be that difficult for him to do.
I don’t think he is going to put up any kind of crazy score tonight, but I think he could be a valuable anchor that allows you more access to guys like Gasol and Jimmy Butler.
I hope you enjoyed today’s value plays. We’ll see you again soon!