The CareerBuilder presents us with a ridiculously high-scoring event that is going to be very difficult to predict. Why? Well, in order for players to even make the three-round cut here, they’re going to have to most likely shoot at least -2/-3 each day as the cut line tends to be around -7/-8. Predicting who is and is not going to make a couple of critical mistakes each week or fail to drain enough birdie putts tends to be a much taller order than predicting who is going to be able to par out to stay above a cut line closer to even par.
For those reasons, you’re going to want to be very careful with your overall bankroll spend this week since there is massive potential for guys to play a great three rounds of golf and miss the cut at -7, causing you to throw your phone across the room. Additionally, because the conditions are so easy for scoring, you’ll want to also consider limiting the size of your contest entrant fields to smaller sizes in order to avoid the possibility that you run into players more willing to use scrubby golfers who could get lucky and catch fire. Remember that the larger the player pool, the greater the diversity of lineup constructions you will see!
The single most important factor for success at these events is greens, greens, greens. Golfers who fail to hit a high percentage of greens each round will almost definitely not have a sufficient number of birdie attempts to score at the pace required to make the cut, much less contend. Focus on tee-to-green specialists regardless of their putting or scrambling prowess.
Course: Three Courses – PGA West TPC Stadium, PGA West Tournament, and La Quinta with the final round at the Stadium Course.
Yardage/Par: Stadium Course: Par 72, 7,113 Yards
Scoring Expectation: This week will even dwarf last week’s insanity – count on at least -20.
Weather: Strong chance of rain on Thursday/Friday which should make this event even more absurdly easy than it already is.
FANTASYDRAFT PICKS FOR CONSIDERATION
Jon Rahm ($18,500, Cash or GPP) – Few golfers have led us at FireDFS to greater success than Jon Rahm since his emergence on tour last year, and he has all of the potential in the world to contend at virtually any event he enters. His biggest issues right now are between the ears, but even with his fiery temperament, he’s been hanging with the bigs with a tee-to-green game that approaches that of Dustin Johnson. Count on him to tear it up here even at this price with plenty of shots at those nice FantasyDraft birdie streak bonuses.
Hudson Swafford ($15,300, Cash or GPP) – The Swafficer has been one of my absolute favorites over the past year. Why? Well, he may not be contending by the fourth round, but his lack of contention controls his price, and he’s still finishing respectably enough to net you some position points on top of that. He’s also one of the best tee-to-green players out there, although his scrambling leaves much to be desired. However, the absolute best part about Swafford is that he is becoming one of the best cut-makers on tour, having not missed a cut since May of 2016. Fire him up!
Paul Casey ($19,000, Mostly GPP) – Did you get burned by Paul Casey last week like I did? Yeah, it was rough, but buried in the sadness and anger over his missed cut was the fact that it was almost entirely on account of a legendarily bad putting performance, and one that is not characteristic of Casey. He was still hitting greens at a great clip, and positive regression is almost inevitable this week. Capitalize on the field’s reluctance to deploy him on account of his price and recency bias and you may end up finding that he helps you dominate this week.
Luke List ($16,500, Mostly GPP) – List has been absolutely red hot since the Fall season began, and his performance last week suggests he’s not stopping now. He has carded nothing worse than a 26th place finish thus far this season, and his combination of absurd power and a surprisingly strong putter (he’s gained 16.34 strokes on the field thus far this season) has put him squarely in our consideration set, particularly on high-scoring tracks.
Good luck in your contests this week, stay disciplined, and trust your process!