Daily fantasy football isn’t all about who you are going to use. Sometimes it’s just as important to determine who you aren’t going to use. That way, if the salary happens to fit for your last spot, you’ll know which names to disregard in order to produce the greatest overall fantasy point output. Here are the guys to cross off your list heading into the 10th week of the NFL season.
Full Disclosure: last week’s edition featured a lot of players that went off. When writing about good players, this will happen occasionally. The goal is to significantly improve this week.
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers, $10,900 – After throwing for 398 yards against the Saints last week, Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers draw a difficult matchup against the Cardinals in Week 10. Only one team (Broncos) have allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing QBs than the Cardinals this season and no team has allowed fewer passing TDs (five). This is unsurprising considering the excellent group of cornerbacks the Cardinals possess led by All-Pro Patrick Peterson. Against an absolutely awful defense last week, Kaepernick was able to get it done. In a matchup against one of the league’s top defenses, bad Kaepernick is likely to rear his ugly head and this should be a long afternoon for him.
Devontae Booker, Broncos, $13,300 – After back-to-back outings in which Devontae Booker failed to reach 3.0 yards per carry (YPC), beat writer Mike Klis speculates Kapri Bibbs will supplant Booker as the lead back against the Saints. Whether or not it happens remains to be seen but clearly the reign of Booker as the “thing of the moment” is over. It is always enticing to start an opposing back against a Saints defense that ranks 25th in Football Outsiders’ defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) statistic but they have to play in order to produce. With Booker possibly drawing the short end of the stick, there is too much uncertainty to pay this sort of price. Instead, roster Jay Ajayi at a nearly identical cost.
James White, Patriots, $8,800 – Receiving backs have actually enjoyed a decent amount of success against the Seahawks to this point; RBs have caught 41 passes for 349 yards in eight games or 43.6 receiving yards per game. Still, the Seahawks rank ninth in terms of DVOA against opposing backs which also makes sense because backs have been targeted 65 times against them (63-percent conversion rate is mediocre when targeting RBs). Even beyond all of this statistical analysis, the Patriots are hoping to have Dion Lewis back this week. In tune, White’s role as the team’s receiving back will be split in half. Facing a stout defense with a diminishing role in the offense is not a great recipe for success.
Davante Adams, Packers, $11,900 – With Randall Cobb and James Starks both looking likely to play this weekend, Davante Adams is slated to slide down the totem pole. What does that mean? There are more mouths to feed in this offense, especially if Cobb starts this game healthy, than there have been in past weeks. Now, Ty Montgomery can be utilized as both a RB and a WR and Cobb likely plays more snaps than Adams as well (if fully healthy). For someone who could fall as low as fourth fiddle in this passing game, Adams is way overpriced. Even last week, Adams’ targets dropped below 14 for the first time in three games and they tumbled all the way to eight (he hauled in four for 41 yards and a TD). Sure the Titans’ passing defense ranks 25th in terms of DVOA but there is too much uncertainty to feel good about rostering Adams for this cost…especially when Jordan Matthews is $900 cheaper.
DeSean Jackson, Redskins, $9,500 – In theory, DeSean Jackson possesses the sort of speed that could burn any defense. However, this is the wrong defense for him to be facing as the combination of Terrence Newman and Xavier Rhodes have played extremely well this season. Number one WRs have only managed 48.9 yards per game against the Vikings which ranks second fewest of any team, per Football Outsiders. With receivers not able to get behind this dominant secondary, Jackson’s skill set does not project well to say the least. Slot receiver Jamison Crowder and tight end Jordan Reed are the ones to target if looking to roster a pass-catcher in this Redskins offense as those are their areas of susceptibility.
Julius Thomas, Jaguars, $5,600 – Admittedly the price tag is enticing here for a player who used to be a sure-thing TE1 on a weekly basis (with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball). Since leaving the the Broncos, he has only scored eight TDs in 20 games with the Jaguars, which is a disappointing total considering his previous outlandish totals (24 TDs in 27 games with Denver). This season alone, Thomas has only broken the double-digit fantasy point threshold in four out of eight games and he scored a TD in three of them. In other words, unless he finds the end zone he possesses an uncomfortably low floor. Only four teams have allowed fewer fantasy points per game to opposing TEs than the Texans and they rank third in terms of DVOA against the position as well. The combination of Blake Bortles struggling to get him the ball on a regular basis mixed with a brutal matchup equals an easy fade.