What Can Brown do For You?

Staring at the standings on FantasyDraft can be a bit nerve-racking if sitting just slightly inside or outside the cash line of a contest but owning players from this game should ease those concerns. Assuming you find yourself in a situation where tonight’s game can make or break the weekend, here are my projections for the game tonight that will help make your likely fate abundantly more clear:

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals

Quarterbacks: After missing last week’s Thursday Night Football contest against the 49ers, Carson Palmer has been cleared and removed from the injury report altogether this week. In other words, he is going to play against a Jets secondary that has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Palmer may have been the most mispriced player on all of FantasyDraft this week as he projects as a true QB1 yet he only costed $11,300. By comparison, Kirk Cousins was priced at $11,200. While some performances (Drew Brees, Case Keenum) are going to be tough to top, Palmer was my top projected fantasy-point-per-dollar producer at the position heading into the week. There is no reason he should not be able to approach 300 yards with multiple TDs at home against this struggling secondary. On the other side, Ryan Fitzpatrick draws a below average matchup against a Cardinals team that has allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs and the defense is loaded with upper-echelon corners. With Patrick Peterson locked onto Brandon Marshall, Fitzpatrick will have to find his secondary options in order to be successful. When that happens, the Jets usually struggle. Projection: Carson Palmer 28 fantasy points, Ryan Fitzpatrick 17 fantasy points

Running Backs: Neither of these two teams have been gashed via the ground game so far and that is evident by both sitting in the bottom 12 of fantasy points to the RB position to this point. The Cardinals do not rank in the top half of any of the following statistics: rushing yardage, rushing TDs, receptions, receiving yards and receiving TDs allowed. What does this mean? They have managed to hold opposing RBs below the league-average in every single major statistical category and they somehow are the less stout of the two run defenses. Matt Forte’s fantasy point output had been on the decline every single week until his improved from 6.30 fantasy points to 8.00 fantasy points from Week 4 to Week 5. He has only caught exactly two passes in four consecutive games and his workload has been on the decline due to an increase in snaps for Bilal Powell. Of the two, Powell was the most enticing DFS play because he was both much more affordable and has caught exactly six passes in four consecutive games. Sort of like Ezekiel Elliott’s matchup yesterday, the Cardinals offensive line versus the Jets front seven is strength versus strength. Both have played incredibly well this year and David Johnson is arguably the best running back in football. Even though the matchup is subpar on paper, his offensive line could still create enough push for him to be productive as usual with a solid workload. Projection: David Johnson 22 fantasy points, Matt Forte 12 fantasy points, Bilal Powell 12 fantasy points

Wide Receivers: Herein lies the most important part of this matchup in terms of ownership percentage on FantasyDraft: John Brown. He appears to be the most heavily owned player from this game in cash games and his performance will probably directly contribute to your success on the night in one way or another. Why did the masses like his prospects? With a healthy Palmer, Brown had been targeted a whopping 27 times in the previous two ballgames and managed 17 receptions (RECs) for 214 yards during that span. Last week’s one REC for 11 yards can basically be thrown out since Drew Stanton was under center. According to Pro Football Focus, Brown’s individual matchup against Marcus Williams ranks as one of the 13 most favorable of the entire week and he was only $8,800. Meanwhile, Larry Fitzgerald’s matchup against Buster Skrine is still favorable for him although not quite to the same extent. As per usual, Fitzgerald possesses the most stable floor of any member in the receiving core and will probably receive some looks in the red zone. Otherwise, Michael Floyd has descended to the third option in the receiving core and is a TD-dependent WR4. For the Jets, Brandon Marshall can get it done versus anyone but Peterson should limit his effectiveness per target if nothing else. Quincy Enunwa actually draws the slightly better matchup against an underperforming Tyrann Mathieu. Neither are in a great spot and are going to likely need to the TD to turn a mediocre day into a productive one. My guess is Marshall receives the red zone targets and converts one because his 40.0-percent of his team’s red zone targets ranks third most amongst any receiver (behind only Emmanuel Sanders and Jordy Nelson). Prediction: Larry Fitzgerald, 22 fantasy points, John Brown 20 fantasy points, Brandon Marshall 15 fantasy points, Quincy Enunwa eight fantasy points and Michael Floyd five fantasy points

Tight Ends: Neither TE is overly involved in the offense. While Austin Seferian-Jenkins is talented and finally expected to suit up for the Jets, the Cardinals have allowed the fewest fantasy points to the position. Both are virtually zero-percent owned anyways so neither should factor into your weekly winnings anyways. Projection: Austin Seferian-Jenkins five fantasy points, Jermaine Gresham four fantasy points

Defense: As eluded to in all of the previous tidbits, the Jets are in trouble against a potent Cardinals passing attack. Interestingly enough, opposing defenses have managed the 10th most fantasy points against the Cardinals on the heels of 13 sacks, seven interceptions, three fumbles recovered and a defensive TD. If the Jets can get pressure on Palmer, there is potential for a respectable day (especially if they are able to take one to the house). However, as has been the case for most of the article, the Cardinals are a superior play. No team has allowed opposing defenses to rack up more fantasy points against them than the Jets due to the nine sacks, 10 interceptions, three fumbles recovered and three defensive TDs against them. Arizona’s defense is one of the best so they should be able to produce a high floor with the possibility to take one to the house against a QB who recently threw nine interceptions in the span of two weeks. Projections: Arizona Cardinals 11 fantasy points, New York Jets four fantasy points

Final Score Projection: Arizona Cardinals 31, New York Jets 20

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

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