Luis Perdomo has been rocked by RHHs this season so one can only imagine the carnage Mark Trumbo’s bat will cause in this matchup. Check out daily fantasy expert Ricky Sanders’ recommended plays to help you fill out your roster for today’s MLB.
Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, $7,200 – Some Rockies pitchers can use the excuse that they’re worse at home due to the atmosphere but Chad Bettis is not one of them. In fact, Bettis’ ERA on the road (5.52) is only slightly worse than his total at home (5.79). Essentially, Bettis is just a bad pitcher and you want to take advantage of him whenever you have the chance. Like a few of the pitchers I’ll be picking on Tuesday, Bettis owns some intense reverse splits. Usually, I’d lean towards Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner against the right-hander but not against a pitcher allowing RHHs to produce a .373 wOBA against him due to the fact that 10 of the 12 HRs he’s allowed have been hit by the handedness. Lefties are slugging just .380 against him compared to .527 for righties. Hell, righties are even hitting 20 points higher against him and this is a trend carrying over from last season. At this point, Bettis is who he is, and the move is to target RHHs against him. None of the Yankees’ right-handers possess more power than Alex Rodriguez so he looks like a prime threat for a long ball.
Derek Dietrich, Marlins, $7,200 – Assuming Derek Dietrich draws a start in the leadoff spot, he is an elite play against a starting pitcher who struggles to retire left-handers. After allowing a .385 wOBA to LHHs in 45.2 IP last season, he hasn’t fared any better this season, allowing a .390 wOBA and .281/.406/.506 slash line to handedness. Quietly, Dietrich is an incredibly productive hitter against the handedness; he has produced a .385 wOBA and .321/.412/.479 slash line against the handedness this season after producing similar numbers in 2015. At this point, there’s enough of a sample size to deem him as “legit.” If Ichiro Suzuki happens to leadoff, he’s worthy of consideration as well. In fact, all Marlins lefties can be deployed considering they’re one of my favorite under-the-radar stacks on the slate.
Mark Trumbo, Orioles, $8,100 – Even without Manny Machado, there is plenty of firepower left in the Orioles lineup worth considering in a matchup versus a bad pitcher. Probable starter Luis Perdomo will head into this matchup with an 8.79 ERA in 42.0 IP partially due to his propensity to give up the long ball (1.50 HR/9). Everyone is hitting him as evident by the fact that each side of the plate has produced a wOBA of at least .385. However, there’s no denying RHHs have done a majority of the damage as they have produce a .379/.464/.630 slash line and a ridiculous .454 wOBA. Sans Machado, Mark Trumbo is leading the Orioles with a .393 wOBA against RHPs this season and he’s already hit 13 HRs against the handedness. In this level of elite matchup, a fair price for Trumbo would be around $10,000. Considering you can get him at about a $2,000 discount from fair value, lock and load him with no questions asked.
Shin-soo Choo, Rangers, $6,800 – Opposing starter Anthony DeSclafani will be making his third start of the season on Tuesday and his ERA (2.08) makes his numbers look deceptively good. He has only lasted a combined 8.2 IP in the two games and he sports a 6.13 FIP, 6.15 xFIP, 6.23 BB/9, 1.04 HR/9 and 4.15 K/9 to this point…all of which are awful. Since returning from the disabled list, Shin-soo Choo is smoking the ball at impressive rates. After hitting the ball hard just 25.0-percent of the time in April, Choo went on the disabled list and only returned for one game in May before going back on the disabled list. Choo returned on Jun. 14 and has hit the ball hard a whopping 44.4-percent of the time since his activation. He came into Monday evening only hitting .261 for the month but he had already homered and stolen a base in just six games of action. Assuming he continues to make solid contact, good things will happen, especially if he manages to do so against DeSclafani. In a game with a projected over/under of 9.5 runs and Texas listed as a heavy favorite (-190), I expect Choo to set the table for an offensive explosion overall from the Rangers.
Jose Fernandez, Marlins, $26,400 – Noah Syndergaard pitches on this slate yet there is no questioning who the best pitching play by a large margin is: Jose Fernandez. While Syndergaard will do battle against a pesky Royals team, Fernandez will face a team equally as difficult to strike out (literally the same exact K rate: 19.0-percent) but rates worse in just about every single other offensive category. Fernandez’s opponent, the Braves, average the fewest runs per game of any team and rank in the bottom 10 of wOBA, wRC+, ISO and hard hit percentage against RHP. Even though the Braves are a tough team to punch out, Fernandez leads the majors in strikeout percentage, so he should get his regardless. Fernandez is listed as a -265 favorite against an awful team tossing a bad pitcher so there is absolutely no reason not to just rely on him as your SP1 in cash games.
Corey Kluber, Indians, $22,400 – I think so highly of the Royals offense that I am willing to overlook Syndergaard to roster Corey Kluber in a much more preferable spot. He’ll face a Rays squad that strikes out at the highest rate of any team against RHPs and they just lost Steve Pearce to injury last night. I’m setting the odds of Pearce making the lineup at about 10-percent, meaning Kluber will likely face a Rays team without two of their top three hitters (Pearce and Steven Souza, who is already on the disabled list). So while the numbers say the Rays rank in the bottom 10 of wOBA, AVG, OBP and line drive percentage, this current constitution of the team is even worse than the statistics suggest. I expect Kluber to approach double-digit strikeouts while finishing with a dominant quality start.
Colby Lewis, Rangers, $18,300 – One name I never thought I would write up was Colby Lewis but his performance this season is just impossible to overlook at this point. Through 14 starts, Lewis still owns a 2.81 ERA and 1.01 WHIP partially due to the fact that he’s allowing a four year low line drive rate. His velocity is actually down half a mile per hour from last season but he’s inducing such weak contact that it does not even matter. In the Choo tidbit, I mentioned my love for the Rangers offense, so I think Lewis is spotted plenty of runs. Assuming he is, he’ll just have to fend off a Reds offense that ranks in the bottom 10 of wOBA, wRC+, BB rate, AVG and OBP. The only category the Reds have excelled in is ISO this season but Lewis hasn’t allowed a SLG over .369 to either side of the plate. Oh by the way, he’s listed as a -190 favorite so Vegas believes in him as well. For tournaments, he is absolutely worth a shot, because he’ll be dominant as long as he can limit the long ball. The slight potential for volatility is what dissuades me from deeming him a cash option but I full-on love him for GPPs.
*Stats are accurate as of Monday, June 20