DFS Picks to Cash in Tournaments 2/16/16

It’s Tuesday and that means its time to cash in some tournaments. It’s my article and that means the obsessive focus on match ups and recent performance. It is also a day that the Bruins are playing, meaning you need to look at that one. Lets look at the best match ups and go from there.

Over the last seven games, the teams that allowed the most goals are the Boston Bruins (@Columbus) and both the Ottawa Senators and Buffalo Sabres, who face each other tonight.

The Bruins allow a lot of goals, but they are fourth in goals scored as well, while the Senators are eighth over that period and the Sabres are twelfth (two fewer goals). Their opponents are good places to target goals, but they are good teams to look to for scores as well. In the case of the Sabres, Evander Kane has been suspended for one game for sleeping through practice, limiting the firepower tonight.

The Bruins face the Columbus Blue Jackets, a team ranked twenty-seventh in goals allowed and twenty-eighth in goals scored over the previous seven games. I don’t recommend targeting the Bruins poor defense when their opponent is too futile to take advantage, but if budgetary factors force you to look to this matchup Cam Atkinson ($9,900) and Brandon Dubinsky ($9,200) are worth consideration.

Columbus has only allowed 14 goals in their last seven games, making this a tough match up for the high-flying Bruins offense. You shouldn’t automatically select a player because of a great match up or ignore a player purely because of a bad one. He is still a good play though, even in tonight’s less than ideal circumstances. Brad Marchand ($14,000) has eight goals and three assists to go with 26 shots on goal, David Krejci ($12,500) has two goals to go with six assists and 14 shots, and Loui Eriksson ($11,00) has fours goals and an assist. Marchand is expensive but he is playing too well to avoid, sort of like Clayton Kershaw in baseball. Krejci and Eriksson are reasonable salaries, but in a tough matchup you may want to avoid stacking against the Blue Jackets. I can’t argue against starting Marchand, but that’s the only player I like in this one. This one could be high-scoring, but it is too difficult to predict with any confidence who is going to benefit from the lamp lighting tonight.

The Ottawa Senators vs. Buffalo Sabres is a game to watch for DFSer’s. Evander Kane and his 40 shots on goal in February have the night off, opening up opportunities for Sam Reinhart ($8,500), who has five goals and an assist to go with 15 shots in February and Marcus Foligno ($6,100) who has been on a bit of a run, scoring four goals to go with one assist and 11 shots. It is difficult not to love a $6,100 price tag on any player that has produced even a little bit, never mind a cushy match up as well. I am hard-pressed to disagree with stacking Reinhart and Foligno with one problem, I like some Ottawa Senators tonight too.

It looks like the Senators will face Robin Lehner tonight at home against the Sabres. I have come to believe that it is good strategy to pay the price for defenseman and one of the main reasons for that change in philosophy is Erik Karlsson ($15,900). I like a lot of cheaper defenseman tonight, so I am not labeling him “must-start”, but I won’t burn you if you stick with the defensive staple. Some other Senators I like tonight are Mark Stone ($11,400) who has six goals, three assists and 19 shots on goal in February and Jean- Gabriel Pageau ($7,500). Zach Smith ($6,400) is also a viable play at that salary to go with three goals and three assists in seven games. I like the strategy of a cheap stack in a prime match up and you aren’t going to find a better example of that strategy than Smith and Pageau tonight.

Cheap Stack of the Night:

Zach Smith $6,400 and Jean-Gabriel Pageau $7,500

Affordable Stack of the Night

Sam Reinhart $8,500 and Marcus Foligno $6,100

Expensive Stack of the Night

Erik Karlsson $15,900 and Mark Stone $11,400

This is the problem for me and it has me considering multiple entries tonight. I like stacking Reinhart and Foligno against the Senators, but I wouldn’t argue with you if you wanted to spend some salary to stack Karlsson and Stone or go cheap and stack Zach Smith and Pageau. All are viable choices, but I can’t recommend two mini-stacks in the same game, especially in a tournament. It limits your ceiling too much.

I am recommending that you play one of the stacks in the $750 Power Play tournament (Smith and Pageau) and then enter two lineups, one stack each, in the $500 Blue Line tournament. That is three entries that take advantage of a prime match up with players that are all performing well recently.

I mentioned some players above in prime match ups like Brad Marchand and the Blue Jacket teammates, now lets get to the individual plays of the night.

The Dallas Stars are lighting the lamp with regularity, which means Benn and Seguin are viable, but these two are the ones I like when you combine production and price. The Blues are a terrible matchup, so this one is a high-flying offense against a stonewall defense. I am hesitant to pay the big price for Benn and Seguin, but the cheaper cost makes me take the risk tonight.

Patrick Eaves: Stars Wing, $7,900

Four goals and four assist to go with 19 shots on goal.

John Klingberg: Stars D $12,900

Also four goals and four assists and 21 shots on goal and a defenseman. I love Erik Karlsson, but $3,000 savings for the same position and more goals scored? I am on board with Klingberg tonight.

Jordan Eberle: Oilers Wing $11,700

Seven goals and three assists, 27 shots on goal. That’s too much production to pass up for a reasonable price.

Connor McDavid: Oilers Center $14,600

I am not enamored with the price, but he is scoring goals and getting assists. I lean towards looking elsewhere to spend the big dollars, but he is worth a look.

I love the bargains tonight. There are centers and defensemen that are at least reasonable, and often bargains, that make it tough to spend the big dollars. It pains me to avoid a bargain, but I am not going to sit a star to start a scrub on a hot streak because he is a bargain, even in a tournament.

Forwards:

Brandon Dubinsky: Blue Jackets C $9,200

Andrej Nestrasil: Hurricanes C $6,000

Defenseman:

William Karlsson: Blue Jackets D $5,100

Shayne Gostisbehere: Flyers D $11,000

Alec Martinez: Kings D $9,500

Andrej Sekera: Oilers D $8,700

David Schlemko: Devils D $7,000

Pay the Price Pick:

Alex Ovechkin: Capitals W $18,400

He is on fire and there are a lot of bargains to make him affordable tonight, especially if you are planning to enter a multiple of entries or contests.

Goalies:

New Jersey Devils $19,700 vs. Philadelphia Flyers

I don’t love any Team G’s tonight, but the Devils and Cory Schneider have allowed 10 goals in February. That’s scary good and second only to the St. Louis Blues. The Flyers are eleventh in shots on goal in February, which is good for the saves, and the offense doesn’t scare me enough to run and hide.

Columbus Blue Jackets $16,400 @ Boston Bruins

The Bruins score a lot and they also shoot a lot. That should scare you and also entice you to start the Jackets. The Blue Jackets have only allowed 14 goals this month and the more saves a goalie makes the less the goals scored hurts you. It’s a risky play, but it’s a very good price point as well.

San Jose Sharks $17,000 @ Tampa Bay Lightning

The Sharks are a great price when you consider that the Lightning aren’t scoring goals and the fact that the Sharks have been effective at preventing them this month.

Chris Mitchell

Chris Mitchell

Chris Mitchell has been playing Fantasy sports for over twenty years. He contributed to RotoWire.com in their early days before contributing as a writer and doing Fantasy sports Podcasts for Seamheads.com. Three seasons ago he brought his writing and his Fantasy sports Podcast to RotoExperts.com and the Fantasy Sports Television network and this past season he wrote a weekly Fantasy sports column for BaseballAmerica.com. He also writes about Minor League prospects for RotoExperts. Chris has no more access to the site than the typical user. Follow him at Twitter @CJMiitch73.

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