Oh, What Might Have Been

Well, week four of the NFL certainly made for a weird week in the world of daily fantasy sports. In week three we saw DFS scoring at a record pace. Week four was the opposite, as scores were low across the industry. Here on FantasyDraft most scores totaled under 200; 208.72 was enough to take the top prize in the Week 4 $250,000 Run and Gun.

Let’s take a look at a few lineups that placed throughout the PayoutZone in the Run and Gun; one from the bottom, one from the middle, and one near the top.

Lineup #1- Score: 142.86 Place: 927th Winnings: $75.00

Lineup 1

The first lineup I will be analyzing is my own. This lineup scored 142.86, which would be extremely low on a normal week, but this week placed me inside the top 1000th for winnings of $75. Here’s a look at what I could’ve done to finish higher in the PayoutZone:

  • Initially, I liked the Cam Newton-to-Greg Olsen connection. Unfortunately, Olsen did not have close to the week he had last week.
  • I thought Stevie Johnson would have a big week working out of the slot. Unfortunately, the Browns’ top corner, Joe Haden, did not play, so they had no one to cover the Chargers #1 receiver, Keenan Allen, who received most of the targets that should have gone to Johnson.

Lineup #2- Score: 156.94 Place: 273rd Winnings: $150

Lineup 2

This second lineup was entered by user ‘MGoBlue’. This lineup scored 156.94, placed 273rd and won $150. The low scores in this lineup all came from popular players throughout the industry:

  • Melvin Gordon was poised for a big day against the atrocious Cleveland Browns run defense, which was just gashed by the Raiders’ Latavius Murray. All signs pointed to this being a breakout week for Gordon, but unfortunately the Chargers took to the air. With Danny Woodhead being the primary passing-down back, Gordon’s production suffered.
  • Travis Kelce had a nice week last week and the game script was in Kelce’s favor. The Chiefs looked like they would be playing from behind, setting up Kelce for a big day, but most of the targets went to Jamaal Charles and Jeremy Maclin.

Lineup #3- Score: 176.46 Place: 10th Winnings: $1,000

Lineup 3

The third and final lineup was entered by user ‘Corybeast5’. This lineup scored 176.46, placed in 10th place and won $1,000, 22 points from taking the top prize of $20,000.

  • This user had to have some optimism going into the Monday night game taking Eric Ebron, but Ebron got hurt early in the first half and did not play the rest of the game. The Seahawks are not good at defending the tight end position and Ebron definitely would have produced had he not been injured.
  • Murray again hurt this lineup significantly. Jay Cutler reentered the lineup, helping the Bears offensively and negatively affecting the game script for Murray. With Jimmy Clausen at the helm, the Raiders might have had a significant lead in this game, meaning more carries for Murray. Additionally, Murray was off the field for some of the game due to a minor injury.

Hopefully this helps put into perspective just how important small lineup variations and changes can be. You just have to trust your system, build the best lineups you can, and hope for the best on Sunday.

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8 Responses

  1. Kyle says:

    Good article. There wasn’t one “Bad” pick by any of those lineups. I just wish that Melvin Gordon would have worked out a little better. I’m glad i’m not the only one thought that struggle to put up a big scoring lineup.

    • Brett Kamann says:

      Nope, they seemed to all be good selections that didn’t pan out. I will incorporate more lineups as we go with roster moves that I didn’t agree with.

  2. Al Michaels says:

    Ya see here – The lineups that get more points.. Rank higher than the ones that don’t.. Ya see?

    And BOOM. that’s what that’s all about!

    — John Madden

    Yes… This article was that bad.

  3. Vagabond Nate says:

    Glad I’m not alone in my low Week 4 numbers.

  4. Ricky Sanders Ricky Sanders says:

    Well done Brett! Enjoyed the article

    • Brett Kamann says:

      Thanks buddy. We had to cut it down a little bit so some of the information got cut. Should be able to get a lot more information in the same article next week. I’m still no Ricky Sanders.

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