The Week Two Mindset

Rob Gronkowski is going to the break the TD record. Marcus Mariota is the greatest QB in the history of football judging by his debut. Chris Ivory is the reincarnation of Marshawn Lynch.

People are in the process of overreacting to week number one, and while they may not be reciting the previous statements word for word, they are attempting to make some generalizations just to be the smartest guy in the room if they actually turn out to be correct. Do not be that person. Heading into week number two, the mindset is going to be similar to week one with one slight difference: some of the data actually matters.

Week number two is another great week to go “contrarian” yet again. People are going to buy into week-one trends like the Steelers ranking as the worst TE defense… but let’s consider that they faced Rob Gronkowski, who is above and beyond the game’s best TE (and maybe offensive player). Vernon Davis scored two TDs in week one last season but didn’t score again all year, so please do not fall into that trap. All data similar to this example is going to sway people to start mediocre players in situations that prove to be less ideal over the long haul. Another trend is the fact that Rashean Mathis was beat like a drum by Keenan Allen in week one. He’s a great corner and inevitably is going to recover (and probably take out his frustrations on the next few receivers he faces, starting with Charles Johnson). The key to week two is deciphering which trends were real and which were a mirage.

Fading the players who were surprisingly productive in week one is going to be a smart play in many cases. For instance, Dion Lewis compiled 16 PPR fantasy points in the first game, so people may be on him in week two. However, the team was playing without LeGarrette Blount, who actually emerged as the team’s workhorse back at the end of last season by scoring the most fantasy points on the team in four of the final six weeks. Another guy people may be on is Austin Seferian-Jenkins, but the offense is a mess and Mike Evans will probably suit up against the Saints.

On the other end of the spectrum, some players who flopped will emerge as nice “buy low” (or contrarian) options. Brandin Cooks underwhelmed in week one in a matchup with Patrick Peterson, which could lead to a low week-two ownership percentage. The Saints will head home to face the division-rival Buccaneers as 11.5-point favorites, so there’s no reason to fear him in this matchup. Another perfect example would be the Giants’ passing attack as a whole, which registered zero TDs through the air in week one. The Falcons, although their defense seems to be somewhat improved, will head to the Meadowlands and play the G-Men in what should be a high-scoring game.

What does this all mean? The mindset for week two is simple: take a look at how situations unfolded and take a hard stand on them. Develop an opinion of your own and stick to your gut. If you believe Andrew Luck underwhelmed in week one because the offensive line is pathetic and his weapons are overrated, then stick to it. If you think Carlos Hyde ran wild on the Vikings because he’s truly going to be an elite back all season, then stick to it. Find situations that you both love and hate and then take advantage. Those who simply base their lineups off week one are going to be left in the dust while you count your winnings in the PayoutZone.

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

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