David Versus the Anti-Goliath

$6,800 is too cheap of a price tag to pass on for David Peralta and his upper echelon skills against RHP. Check out daily fantasy expert Ricky Sanders’ recommended plays to help you fill out your roster.

Infield:

Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, $9,300 – I pretty much can regurgitate all the numbers I presented a few days ago in regards to Alex Rodriguez against knuckleballers. He didn’t fare too well as he went 0-4 in the game and 0-3 against Steven Wright. With that being said, I believe the fact that he just saw a knuckleballer will play to his advantage. In fact, I think it plays to the advantage of the whole Yankee team. The most important aspect of the knuckleball is the element of surprise. Having just seen it literally two days ago, the team will be much better prepared. It won’t be such the usual change of pace that it typically is. As previously mentioned, Rodriguez has homered eight times against the pitch type and owns excellent career numbers against knuckleballers as a whole. I’m doubling down on A-Rod and moving my chips back in the middle.

Anthony Rendon, Nationals, $6,300 – What in the world is this price? Jorge De La Rosa, despite allowing a higher wOBA to LHH than RHH this season, still sports a 4.87 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Also his career splits, that include 950.0 IP against RHP, suggest this season’s numbers are simply due to a small sample size. De La Rosa has allowed a career wOBA of .347 to RHH versus .288 to LHHs. Anthony Rendon is coming off of a career season where he hit .287 with 21 HR, 83 RBI and 17 SB in 153 games. Even though he has only hit one HR in 108 ABs so far this season due to lingering injuries, he’s starting to find his stroke. He hit his first home run of the season on Aug. 2 which to me signifies his confidence is coming back. Despite the struggles, he’s hitting .368 with a .362 wOBA against LHP and owns a career .310 AVG versus lefties. Now is the time to buy low on him and I think it could pay off huge at this price especially in tournaments. Rendon is simply my guy tomorrow and I’ll be going into battle with him in nearly 100 percent of my lineups. UPDATE: Rendon is out of the lineup. Just about everyone actually in the Nationals lineup is worthy of consideration.

Outfield:

Michael Brantley, Indians, $9,200 – The Indians are blessed with the opportunity to face Mike Pelfrey at home on Friday evening. Coincidentally enough, both the Indians home record and Twins road record sits at exactly 20-32. Pelfrey pitches almost exclusively to contact which isn’t the way to go against Michael Brantley. The .308/.395/.471 slash line against RHP combined with a 29.80 hard hit percentage suggests throwing the ball over the plate to Brantley results in punishment. Pelfrey pitches so much so to contact that he actually owns the lowest K/9 in all of baseball among qualified pitchers. Even worse, his 2.72 BB/9 ranks 34th worst among qualified pitchers. There are simply many ways Brantley should be able to contribute in this contest which establishes him a preferred cash option.

David Peralta, Diamondbacks, $6,800 – Raisel Iglesias possesses some of the most extreme splits of any starting pitchers this season. He has absolutely dominated RHHs this season to the tune of a .183/.272/.370 slash line and .284 wOBA. Lefties, on the other hand, are hitting .347 against him with a .464 SLG and .382 wOBA. This is a case where the splits of the pitcher align with the splits of the higher which signifies a top tier matchup. David Peralta’s .371 wOBA ranks behind only Paul Goldschmidt’s .416 for the team lead but Peralta actually has produced a higher ISO. Goldschmidt is priced at $10,800 while Peralta is priced $4,000 less. It’s a no-brainer as to who is the better value. Use the consistently underpriced Peralta because the upside far outweighs the cost.

Pitcher:

Jose Fernandez, Marlins, $24,400 – After a Jose Urena beatdown on Thursday night, maybe the ownership for Jose Fernandez will end up lower than it should be. Urena is an average-to-below-average skilled pitcher while there’s little doubt Fernandez is the personification of an ace. Let’s review the Braves 2015 performance versus RHP: they rank in the bottom 10 of wOBA, wRC+, ISO and hard hit percentage. Oh by the way they have scored the least amount of runs of any team over the past 30 days (71). They are a tough team to strike out but right-handed aces such as Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke and Jacob deGrom have fared quite well against them this season despite not registering double digit strikeouts. I would expect something similar for Fernandez with something like 28-29 fantasy points as a ceiling but 15 or so as his floor. For that reason, I prefer him in cash but feel like he’s as rock solid as they come in the format.

Jacob deGrom, Mets, $23,600 – Speaking of Jacob deGrom, he takes the bump tomorrow on the road at Tampa Bay. Even though I never like a National League pitcher going to an American League park and having to deal with a designated hitter, I’ll make an exception here. deGrom’s ERA sits at 2.09 with a 9.1 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 so essentially he is doing everything right on the mound this season. He’ll face a Rays team that is the only one in the American League to rank in the bottom 10 of wOBA, wRC+, ISO, BB rate, AVG, OBP and hard hit percentage. As icing on the cake, they also strike out at 22.30 percent against RHP. If facing an AL team, this is the team to face as an opposing pitcher. Use deGrom everywhere.

Sonny Gray, Athletics, $21,600 – As I’ve been g-chatting my writer friends tonight, I honestly believe Sonny Gray is going to win people tournaments on Friday evening. Squaring off against the Astros overall is not an enticing matchup. They rank eighth in wOBA against RHP, produce a significant amount of runs and rank first in ISO. Hopefully those facts will deter enough people to have his GPP ownership sit around 15-20 percent. Gray has absolutely dominated in the Oakland Coliseum this season (1.64 ERA in 12 starts). The stadium ranks as one of the bottom seven HR allowing parks over the past two seasons which should assist in limiting bombs. The aspect of this matchup that appeals most is the strikeout potential. Only the Cubs strike out more against RHP and the differential is 0.1 percent. With favorable splits, 10-plus K upside and a pitcher friendly ballpark, the sky is the ceiling.

Aaron Nola, Phillies, $12,000 – Need a cheap alternative in order to fit an expensive array of bats? Look no further than the Phillies’ Aaron Nola in Petco Park. The Padres rank in the bottom five of wOBA, bottom 10 of wRC+, ISO, BB rate, AVG, OBP and line drive percentage. They also strike out at 21.70 percent. Nola had struck out exactly six batters in both of his first two starts until he had to face the aforementioned un-stirkeout-able Braves. Impressive describes Nola’s first three starts as he currently sits with a 3.38 ERA and 0.98 WHIP so he should continue dealing in another favorable matchup. I think he gets back to his K’ing ways in this which makes him an attractive cheap option everywhere. I say yes-la to Nola.

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders

Ricky Sanders is a fantasy sports expert with over 15 years of playing experience. After starting several freelance fantasy sports blogs, Ricky moved up in the fantasy industry when he joined Going9 Baseball. He wrote fantasy baseball content and had a weekly radio spot on the site’s SiriusXM Satellite Radio show. Shortly thereafter, in early 2013, Ricky joined RotoExperts as a three-sport fantasy contributor, eventually becoming one of the site’s lead basketball writers. While writing for RotoExperts, Ricky was introduced to daily fantasy sports and immediately fell in love. With help from some of his mentors, some of the best DFS players in the world, he honed his skills and became the daily fantasy expert he is today. When RotoExperts created a daily-focused website called DailyRoto.com, Ricky was brought on as one of the main contributors. He still makes frequent appearances on the RotoExperts SiriusXM Radio show and on the FNTSY Sports Television Network, talking daily fantasy sports. He also continues to write for a few DFS content sites: RotoCurve and The Fantasy Fix. Ricky is a proud and active member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He has agreed to be a writer and representative for the FantasyDraft brand and serves as an ambassador to the site. He has no more access to the site than the typical user. Don’t hesitate to contact Ricky with questions on Twitter @RSandersDFS.

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4 Responses

  1. Ricky B says:

    Are your recomendations for GPPs, leagues or 50/50s?

    • Ricky Sanders Ricky Sanders says:

      Hey Ricky B, most of them specify whether they are for cash games or tournaments. I define cash games as head-to-heads or 50/50s and tournaments as essentially anything other format.

  2. Ricky B says:

    Thanks – I have been following your picks and having fun with baseball. I have always played NFL and NBA but now I am enjoying MLB thanks to you! Keep it up. Do you think FDraft will be adding larger contests in the coming weeks?

  3. Ricky Sanders Ricky Sanders says:

    Have you checked in on Tuesdays and Fridays? Those have been the big days recently. There has been a nice mixture of offerings….$1, $2, $3, $5, $12 and $25 tournaments

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