RotoWire NBA Value Picks 3-3-2015

galloway

A number of key injuries this week create opportunities for others
Value Plays

Guard

Langston Galloway, NYK, $6,000 – Galloway is still priced at the minimum on FantasyDraft, causing his ownership percentage to be high each night. Galloway’s price is far too low, as he has exceeded value in 10 straight games entering Tuesday’s contests. With value being set at 2.5 times a player’s salary, Galloway would need 15 fantasy points to reach value. In his past 10 games entering Tuesday night, he has 15 or more fantasy points in each outing and at least 21 fantasy points in eight of those games.

Until his price rises, he is a must-play regardless of the matchup, as he is averaging 28.1 fantasy points per game since the All-Star break.

Jeremy Lin, LAL, $8,100 – Remember when “Linsanity” took over New York City? Lin’s recent tear has been reminiscent of that torrid stretch, as Lin has scored 45.5 and 48.5 fantasy points in his past two games. Since the All-Star break, Lin has played at least 24 minutes in every game and has averaged close to 35 fantasy points per game.

The Lakers have lost Kobe Bryant (shoulder) and Ronnie Price (elbow) for the season, Nick Young (knee) has not played in over a week, and the only healthy guards are Jordan Clarkson and Wayne Ellington. Until Young comes back or the rotation changes, Lin will continue to see an expanded role and have the opportunity to score over 20 points as one of the main ball-handlers for the Lakers.

In the last two contests, Lin is averaging 21.5 points, six rebounds, and eight assists per game, which is an average of 47 fantasy points per contest. At his price of $8,100, only 20.5 fantasy points is required to meet value, which he has done in five of the Lakers’ last six games.

Forward/Center

Thomas Robinson, PHI, $7,200 – While Robinson is on his fourth NBA team in three seasons, he has yet to land on a team where he would get a true chance to showcase his ability. In Sacramento, Houston, and Portland, there was significant talent ahead of him, limiting him to just 13.6 minutes per game in his career.

In Philadelphia, the minutes are not as hard to come by. In just four games, Robinson has played 65 minutes, totaling 38 points and 29 rebounds, prorated for an average of 21 points and 16 rebounds per 36 minutes. While the sample size is small, Robinson averages 12.5 points and 11.8 rebounds per 36 minutes in his career, which is a significant line in daily fantasy basketball.

On FantasyDraft, Robinson’s price requires only 18.6 fantasy points to reach value. In his last three games, he has accrued at least 20.25, meeting value in all three contests. Other than Nerlens Noel, no other Sixers big man has been as efficient as Robinson, so expect him to play a bigger role off the bench, giving him over 20 minutes per game.

At his current pace, 20 minutes is enough to reach value, as Robinson is averaging well over a fantasy point per minute with Philadelphia. Robinson leads all Sixers in points per 36 minutes, rebounds per 36 minutes, and shots per 36 minutes, which has contributed to his 29.4 percent usage rate.

Notable Injuries

Russell Westbook (head) is day-to-day. Until Westbrook is able to play, D.J. Augustin will play the bulk of the minutes at point guard, making him an excellent option.

Anthony Davis (shoulder) is day-to-day. As long as Davis is out, Alexis Ajinca, Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon and Omer Asik are value plays for the Pelicans.

Blake Griffin (elbow) is out, but he’s likely to return on Sunday. Spencer Hawes is a value play and DeAndre Jordan continues to be a top-tier daily fantasy option for the Clippers.

Kelly Olynyk (ankle) is questionable. He has missed the last six weeks, but he’s set to return to the Celtic’s rotation soon. If he is active, Brandon Bass’ values will decrease.

More injury information can be found here.

Good luck.

John Collacchi

John Collacchi

Josh is a fantasy sports writer from northern Delaware who covers nearly every fantasy sport for various sites in addition to Rotowire. He has been published in the Boston erald, Chicago Tribune, Philly.com, AOL Sports and more. Follow him on Twitter @JoshCollacchi.

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